Hill City faces a big decision this November; whether to reelect incumbent Wendell Walker, or flip the district in favor of Democratic challenger Risë Marie Hayes. This district, which encompasses the City of Lynchburg and a sliver of Campbell County, has historically been anchored by solid Republican turnout from the area surrounding Liberty University, Timberlake, and the Brookville area of Campbell County.
Prior to redistricting in 2021, both Walker and Republican Kathy Byron were incumbents in their respective neighboring districts, HD-23 and HD-22. They both ended up having their districts incorporated into a new district, the current HD-52, and Byron effectively passed the torch to Walker when she stepped down from consideration for re-election.
Walker first represented HD-23 after defeating his challenger, Democrat David Zilles, by a whopping 28 points at the ballot box in the 2019 election. The walloping continued into 2021– Walker defeated his opponent, Natalie Short, by a touch over 32 points. By the time Byron stepped down from consideration, she had already raised a good amount of money ahead of the primary contest. She used the majority of the $216,650 in expenditures on donations to other candidates and committees– among them being Lee Peters, who unsuccessfully ran against Democrat Joshua Cole in HD-65, Delegates David Owen of HD-57 and Ian Lovejoy of HD-22, John Stirrup, who narrowly lost to Democrat Joshua Thomas in HD-21 and, yes, the campaign of her successor, Wendell Walker.
After redistricting, Walker’s margin of victory slimmed. He inherited downtown Lynchburg and the surrounding suburban and collegiate communities to the south from Byron’s HD-22, and with it came a solid block of Democratic voters– only without the dedicated Republican voters she once drew in the northern parts of Smith Mountain Lake, and Walker’s own suburban and rural voters from Bedford and Campbell County. Walker defeated his last challenger, Democrat Jennifer Woofter, by just 9.1% in 2023, an underperformance compared to President Trump’s 11.4% victory here in 2024.
The single digit victory piqued the interest of one Lynchburg resident, Risë Hayes. Hayes is running on a generally progressive platform despite the district’s “red” hue, advocating for three main issues on her campaign website: protecting collective bargaining in the workplace, increased funding for schools and access to early childhood education, and lowering the cost of living.
She has secured endorsements from Democratic Party of Virginia and many of their auxiliary branches, like the VA Dems Women’s, Latino, and Asian American Caucuses. She is also one of the many challengers looking to flip a Republican seat into Democrat hands who has earned the endorsement of Clean Virginia, which funds candidates who decide against drinking from the chalice of Dominion Energy in their pursuit of office. Still, Hayes’s race has been put on the backburner for Democrats’ targeting in the House of Delegates this year when compared to other competitive races.
The moment in her campaign that garnered her the most attention was just a few short weeks ago, when Hayes posted on her Facebook that she can not endorse Jay Jones in light of the revelation of his descriptive fantasy of targeted violence and even murder against former Speaker Todd Gilbert and hopes for the deaths of his children. A comment from Hayes in reply to a user stating that they will not vote for Jones on Election Day reads as follows:
“I regret my vote. I can’t change it, but if I had known this information, he would have never gotten my support.”
So far, Hayes seems to be on an island in her own party. During the gubernatorial debate earlier this month, Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger failed to comment one way or the other on whether or not she still endorsed Jones ahead of the election, whether she was being asked by the moderators or by Earle-Sears herself during her repeated interjections about the subject. Spanberger, like Hayes, cannot change her vote, and neither can the tens of thousands of Virginians who have already cast their early votes for Jones. We’ve asked other candidates for Delegate in competitive races like Lily Franklin and Elizabeth Guzman whether they would campaign with Jones and whether they endorse him still, but like Spanberger, gave non-answers to the specific question.
We caught up with Hayes this weekend and asked her about her campaign, the issues on the doors, and her comments about Jay Jones.
The topic of Jay Jones is, in Walker’s own words, one of the few things on which he and his opponents can agree. This post from Walker on his X account, which contains screenshots of Hayes’ aforementioned Facebook post and comment, may be one of the rare instances of a cross-party meeting of common ground this cycle. Walker tends to vote along the likes of Delegates who come from solidly red districts, like Barry Knight of Chesapeake/Virginia Beach’s HD-98 and Will Davis of Franklin and Roanoke Counties’ HD-39, according to W-NOMINATE.
We interviewed Walker earlier in the week to ask him about ideology, the youth vote in a three-college town, and what makes Lynchburg home.
Walker is solidly favored to win this election in our forecast, with a predicted margin of 5.4%. It’s not the 32 point blowout he was welcomed into the chamber with, but it’s likely enough to keep him here, at least for now.
One potential issue is the significant drop in student registration at Liberty University, home to the most conservative precinct in the Commonwealth where Republicans regularly enjoy >90% of the vote. To make matters worse for Republicans, students at Liberty, even those registered to vote, have a drastic dropoff in non-presidential year turnout. Should Walker fail to get these young conservatives out to vote, he’ll either narrowly scrape by or lose by a gnat’s eyebrow.
This is Walker’s first somewhat competitive race in the House of Delegates, and depending on the margin, he may find himself in an even more competitive race come 2027 should he be re-elected this November. We’ll have to wait for the results, of course, to determine the future.
