Democrats hold lead in Georgia’s Governor and Lieutenant Governor Race, as well as State House Generic Ballot
Georgia better be on your mind.
A new State Navigate Poll conducted between July 10th and 13th shows Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia, with a 7-point lead over her Republican opponent Rick Jackson. This is the largest lead Bottoms has had in a public nonpartisan poll of the Georgia Governor’s race, which has seen sparse polling so far compared to previous cycles: our poll is the fifth public poll of the race thus far.
Given Democrats’ victories in 2025, the generic ballot, Gallup’s Quarterly Party ID, and other indicators, November is currently projected to be a 2018-esque environment, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Democrats are the prohibitive favorites to win a Governor’s race in a state that narrowly voted for President Trump in 2024: our forecast shows Bottoms with a 3-in-4 chance to win the race at the moment.
The more concerning findings in this survey are what lies in the downballot races. Democrats also currently lead the race for Lieutenant Governor by 4 points, and given the sheer number of open statewide races in Georgia this year and lack of ticket-splitting in the recent state government elections, there’s a decent chance they sweep all of them.
The most explosive finding in our survey, though, is that the Georgia House is in play for the first time in recent memory. When asked who voters plan to vote for in their local Georgia House of Representatives race, 51% say they plan to vote for the Democrat and 43% plan to vote for the Republican, or an 8-point lead for Democrats. If that result were to happen today, it’d blow the doors off of our Georgia House of Representatives forecast, where Republicans have a 3-in-4 chance of winning the majority. Democrats need to net 10 seats to win the majority, a level of government they haven’t controlled since 2002.
For our analysis, detailed findings, crosstabs, and more, see the links below.
