Privately, Virginia Republicans are conceding the races for Governor and Lieutenant Governor: Few members of the party believe that Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, or the nominee to keep her office, John Reid, have a shot at victory in November. The conventional wisdom in conservative (and liberal) circles in the Commonwealth often agrees, however, that incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares has a shot at victory in November if Sears and Reid don’t get blown out.

This attitude echoes a similar sentiment expressed by those in the Republican establishment in 2021; some believed that Miyares would be the best-performing Republican in the statewide elections, or at least would outrun Winsome Sears. That prediction didn’t quite ring true, as Glenn Youngkin won the race for Governor by 1.94%, Sears the race for Lieutenant Governor by 1.54%, and Miyares the race for Attorney General by 0.81%. Miyares was the only candidate to run against an incumbent that year.

Republicans with whom we’ve spoken believe that there will be at least slightly more ticket-splitting compared to 2021. Given last year’s defeat of the belief that ticket-splitting is long dead, there’s credence to this prediction– especially if their notion is to be believed that Spanberger and the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor easily win the other two statewide races easily, and Miyares now enjoys the incumbency advantage.

However, there hasn’t been a difference in the winner for the Virginia off-year statewide elections since 2005, when then-Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine won a promotion to the Governor’s mansion, but center-right State Senator Bill Bolling flipped the office into the Republican column.

Virginia Statewide Election Results in the 21st Century

Year	Best DEM Performance	Best GOP Performance	Difference
2021	AG | R+ 0.81%	GOV | R+ 1.94%	1.13%
2017	GOV | D+ 8.93%	LT. GOV | D+ 5.54%	3.39%
2013	LT. GOV | D+ 10.58%	AG | D+ 0.04%	10.54%
2009	LT. GOV | R+ 13.11%	GOV | R+17.36%	4.25%
2005	GOV | D+ 5.73%	LT. GOV | R+ 1.15%	6.88%
2001	GOV | D+ 5.13%	AG | R+ 20.14%	25.27%

State Navigate’s forecast for the statewide elections won’t be public until July 28th, but we’ll be giving ticket-goers to our 2025 Forecast Launch fundraiser a month-early look at the forecasts for the statewide and House of Delegates elections on June 29th. While we don’t yet know for certain how competitive the race for Attorney General is, both camps believe that Jason Miyares will be the best-performing statewide Republican this year in Virginia. So it’s worth asking: Who is the most electable Democrat running for Attorney General?

The primary is only a few days away, and for the third cycle in a row, the battle between Clean Virginia and Dominion Energy rages on in a renewed bout in yet another off-year statewide Democratic primary in Virginia.

Former Delegate Jay Jones of Norfolk unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for Attorney General back in 2021 when he lost to incumbent Mark Herring by 13.23%, and is hoping his name recognition from 2021 will help him beat Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor. Jones has taken large contributions from the folks at Clean Virginia, while Taylor has taken large contributions from Dominion Energy.

Unlike our analysis for the race for Lieutenant Governor, Republican insiders don’t have much of a preference for who they wish to run against. “I think [State Senator Aaron] Rouse hurts Miyares more than Jones does… but no real preference in this primary. You have Jay with the built-in name recognition from 2021 and a presence in Hampton Roads, and then Shannon with the actual prosecutorial experience,” said one top Virginia Republican.

That’s a far cry from the Republican opinions on the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor, where Republicans we spoke with believe former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney is the easiest to beat in a general election, with mixed opinions on the electability of State Senator Ghazala Hashmi.

It’s time to meet the Democratic candidates for Attorney General– and discuss their strengths and weaknesses in a general election.

Jay Jones

Bio: Jay Jones is a 36-year-old African American man and former Delegate from Norfolk City. He’s the son of the late Norfolk Circuit Court Judge Jerrauld Jones and grandson of Norfolk Civil Rights Attorney and School Board member Hillary H. Jones Sr. He was first elected in 2017 and served in the chamber until the end of 2021. He was also previously an Assistant Attorney General for the District of Columbia.

Strengths:

1. The Republican with whom we spoke gave Jones two strengths: his name recognition from 2021 and being from Hampton Roads. However, while Jones likely does have higher name recognition than Taylor due to his 2021 statewide primary bid, it wasn’t for a general election, and he hasn’t been in an elected office during Governor Youngkin’s term, so it’s not likely name recognition that makes that much of a difference. However, the advantage pointed out by this Republican that Jones being from Hampton Roads has credence to it; it had the largest swing to the right in the urban crescent in 2021, and it’s Miyares’ home turf.
2. As noted in the piece for Lieutenant Governor, not having a Black candidate on the Democratic ticket could be a liability for Democrats. They’re being led into battle by a white woman from Henrico who spent her professional career in the CIA, and has previously drawn concerns from some Black leaders in the Democratic Party in her ability to meaningfully reach a core of Black voters this year. Having a Black Democrat on the ticket this year would help mitigate those concerns shared by Democrats, but it’s also worth noting that Levar Stoney and Aaron Rouse may win the nomination for Lieutenant Governor, both of whom are Black, and we’d be mistaken to count out Ghazala Hashmi. Voters could double up on Black representation from Hampton Roads or be led by an all-woman ticket from Richmond with no Black candidates; it’s up to the final votes cast on Tuesday how Democratic primary voters want to approach the general election.

Weaknesses:

1. Jones’s lack of experience as a prosecutor is probably his biggest weakness. In an internal poll by the Taylor campaign, a majority of Democratic primary voters want their candidate to have prosecutorial experience (59%) over those who want their candidate to have experience as a legislator (39%). However, there are a few caveats. The first is that it’s an internal poll and is likely biased toward Taylor as a consequence, the second being that this doesn’t necessarily mean that those respondents who want prosecutorial experience would necessarily vote for Miyares in a general election. Still, the perception of a candidate who is ‘tough on crime’ is usually an electoral advantage these days.
2. Jones has never run in a competitive general election: his majority-Black district in Norfolk was one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the chamber. In the singular time he ran against a Republican in his House district in 2021, he ran a couple of points behind his seat’s 2020 margin; however, the environment was much more Republican in 2021 than 2020, so this isn’t the most vital metric.

Shannon Taylor

Bio: Shannon Taylor is a 58-year-old white woman from the west end of Henrico County. In 2011, she flipped the Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney office from Republican to Democratic, and has been re-elected three times since then. She has been a prosecutor for three decades and is the former president of Virginia’s Association of Commonwealth Attorney’s.

Strengths:

1. Taylor’s prosecutorial experience can help her in a general election: voters often trust Republicans more on handling crime, but this background can ease those concerns amongst independent/swing voters who have crime as a top issue going into November.
2. Taylor has run in competitive elections before, though it’s been 10 years since her last remotely competitive race. Taylor flipped the Commonwealth’s Attorney office in Henrico County in 2011 in a three-way contest against an Independent and Republican candidate, and won re-election in 2015 by 12 points. It’s been a decade since she’s had to run in a highly competitive race, but she has more experience going up against Republicans than Jones does.

Weaknesses:

1. Having another white woman from the Henrico suburbs isn’t adding anything new to the Democratic ticket. There’s already a blonde white woman from the Henrico suburbs who has flipped Republican offices in the area during the 2010s with a law enforcement background, and Abigail Spanberger is her name. When it comes to regional, professional, and racial diversity for the Democratic ticket, she doesn’t bring anything new to the table.
2. Dominion Energy holds all the cards in the general election, as they’ve contributed tons of money to both Taylor and Attorney General Miyares. No one knows what their spending plan is, of course, or what may transpire if Miyares is seen as a viable candidate in the general election, or if he becomes favored to win, depending on what polling and forecasts show. Dominion could pick either horse in the last stretch of the campaign, and if they pick Miyares, it could put Taylor at a significant fundraising disadvantage. In a way, it’s a gamble.

Conclusion
The race for Attorney General draws no preference from Republicans on who they’d rather face: a combination of racial, regional, and professional diversity are playing a role in Virginians’ choices on who to support, but the contest is largely being dominated by the topic of Team Clean and Team Dominion, including in TV advertisements. Like the race for Lieutenant Governor, the outcome of both of these primaries determines the overall strength of the Democratic ticket going into November; they’re reliant on one another.