At the end of the day, it all came down to the turnout.

After a ferocious battle that spilled out of the courthouses and into the mailboxes of Virginians en masse, the constitutional amendment that calls for new Congressional maps has been approved. Virginia will adopt the newly drawn maps for its upcoming congressional elections. 

The victory of the “Yes” campaign came after its comparatively slow early voting season, where ruby red rural counties far overperformed their margins from 2025 from the first week until Election Day. 

The current projected margin sits at 51.6% in favor of the redistricting amendment, with a projected 48.4% of voters against the amendment. These are hardly the numbers that carried Abigail Spanberger into office last November, and it’s certainly an indication that the bluer areas of Northern Virginia and the Richmond area were less enticed to vote on this issue before election day when compared to last November’s gubernatorial election. Either way, to the Yes campaign, a win’s a win.

This trend could have been a cause for concern among the “Yes” campaign, especially considering that Election Day turnout favored the “No” campaign in many crucial localities. Even when it came to the early vote tally, the electorate was close to 3% redder than it was in November. 

However, support for the constitutional amendment in the metro areas outweighed the heavy turnout in rural counties in Southwestern Virginia, despite confusing messaging from the various anti-amendment groups that attempted to convince Spanberger voters that Democrats did not support the amendment. The maps that will be used from this year until the next bipartisan redistricting process, which will happen in 2031.

What comes next for Virginia

It’s important to note, however, that the issue in court persists. The Virginia Supreme Court has deferred any kind of legal resolution to a later date; they may yet decide to weigh in on the issue now that the amendment has passed. It’s still possible that the courts could strike down the referendum, though not likely.

While the maps as they are now will likely result in a 10-1 Democratic majority for Virginia’s congressional delegation, public opinion is constantly changing. Regardless of how you slice up Virginia, you won’t be able to change who the president is, and a wave of any kind can easily change the composition of representation. For now, though, it looks like this November is shaping up to shift the balance of power on a federal level. 

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