It’s been a whirlwind of a week in Virginia.
In yet another chapter of the many woes of John Reid, the blog which had earlier been the reason behind Glenn Youngkin’s request for Reid’s withdrawal has returned to the news cycle with a vengeance. The Tumblr blog, which shares a username with Reid’s Instagram and TikTok accounts, was earlier reported to have contained images of nude men, but did not include descriptions of the other content found on the blog. The account has over 11 years of activity, during which time it engaged with “Nazi porn accounts.” John Reid denies any connection to the account, and even accused Youngkin’s PAC, “Spirit of Virginia” of extorting him in April when they allegedly threatened to release damaging opposition research if Reid refused to withdraw at the behest of Governor Youngkin.
Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones is weathering a season of October Surprises without an umbrella. After a report earlier in the week which called to attention Jones’ January 2022 reckless driving charge, in which he was driving at a speed of 116 miles per hour mere weeks after stepping down from the House, a text conversation from August 2022 in which he made dark comments about former Virginia Speaker of the House of Delegates Todd Gilbert, his wife Jennifer, and their children broke just before the weekend. Screenshots of the text conversation, which took place between Jones and Delegate Carrie Coyner, were sent to National Review journalist Audrey Fahlberg, who broke the story on Friday afternoon. Fahlberg asserts that the screenshots were not sent to her by Carrie Coyner, Todd Gilbert, or Jason Miyares.
Jones was scheduled to appear on CBS 6 at 7:30 PM for a one-on-one interview with Tyler Englander, which he was reported to have cancelled earlier that afternoon. Jones issued the following statement via email at 7:50 PM local time:
“I take full responsibility for my actions, and I want to issue my deepest apology to Speaker Gilbert and his family. Reading back those words made me sick to my stomach. I am embarrassed, ashamed, and sorry.
“I have reached out to Speaker Gilbert to apologize directly to him, his wife Jennifer, and their children. I cannot take back what I said; I can only take full accountability and offer my sincere apology.
“Virginians deserve honest leaders who admit when they are wrong and own up to their mistakes. This was a grave mistake and I will work every day to prove to the people of Virginia that I will fight for them as Attorney General.”
Jones appeared on CBS 6 for the interview 3 hours later.
Poll numbers from the Washington Post indicated that Jones was at a six point advantage going into the last month before the elections, but these numbers were obviously taken before any negative news of Jones’ prior behavior had broken. This will likely result in a major hit to his favorability ratings and, in turn, boost the chances for ticket splitting for the office of Attorney General with more moderate voters who would otherwise vote for all of the Democratic candidates.
Today, Brandon Jarvis of the Virginia Scope reported on a separate conversation between Jones and Coyner, where Coyner said in 2020, Jones stated that the deaths of police officers would stop them from killing other people while discussing qualified immunity. Jones denied saying this when asked for comment by The Virginia Scope.
Privately, Virginia Republicans believe that the texts Jones sent are damning enough to save a few seats in the House of Delegates that Democrats are favored to flip in our forecast, and give Miyares not only a good chance of winning the race for Attorney General, but also the ability to be the money magnet Republicans desperately need.
Democrats are privately panicking over Jones’s comments, but feel that Reid’s opposition research and the federal government shutdown are “enough to help pull Jay [Jones] over the finish line,” according to one top Virginia Democrat.
Public opinion lags behind news stories, and it likely won’t be until the attack ads go up and mailers arrive in voters’ mailboxes before we can observe just how much of an effect these stories will have on the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
It’s frankly common sense to assume that the race for Lieutenant Governor just became easier for Democrats, and the race for Attorney General became easier for Republicans.
Not since 2005 have Virginians, in a gubernatorial year, elected a statewide ticket that had split party winners in the races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. Stick with our forecasts and coverage over the next month to see if history rhymes with itself.
