On April 21st, Virginia will decide if the proposed amendment to adopt new maps for the upcoming Congressional elections either pass into effect, or fail at the ballot box. So far, we’ve seen a much different electorate from that which we witnessed for the statewide elections last year; most of the Democratic strongholds in urban areas are lagging behind their early voting turnout, while rural counties are overperforming. This is not to say that the next month, or even voting day itself, will follow suit— merely a reflection of an ongoing trend thus far.
What Voting “Yes” or “No” Does
The redistricting amendment is polarizing to many Virginians in its zeal— the last time Virginia sent 10 Democrats to Congress was 100 years ago, during the beginning of the Byrd Machine. However, no such plans have been laid for such a multi-decade power consolidation scheme; the proposed amendment is said to be temporary.
After November, the maps will expire during the next scheduled bipartisan redistricting process in 2031. This November will be the first time these maps will come into play— if they are passed by voters on April 21st.
The question on your ballot will read as follows: “Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”
By indicating “Yes”, the voter casts their ballot to approve the amendment and adopt the newly drawn maps for the midterm elections. By indicating “No”, the voter casts their ballot against the amendment and votes to keep the current maps ahead of the midterm elections.
Early voting is open at certain locations until April 18th. The referendum election will be held at your polling location on April 21st. Please check the Board of Elections website to determine your polling location for your preferred method of voting.
For our interactive showing what the new maps will look like, click here. To see what the current maps look like, click here.
Pro-“Yes” and Pro-“No” Arguments
Democrats pushing the redistricting amendment argue that the amendment will counteract Republican gerrymanders passed this year and the last in the states of Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and likely Florida. Republicans argue that the gerrymanders have already been counteracted by redistricting in California and Utah, and that the Virginia gerrymander would be the most extreme in the country. That second point, we confirmed, is true, though Virginia would largely counteract North Carolina’s gerrymander in terms of partisan extremity.
This year, Republicans are expected to pick up 3 to 5 congressional seats in Texas, 1 seat in Missouri, 1 in North Carolina, 0 to 2 seats in Ohio, thanks to their gerrymanders, plus an extra 0 to 5 in Florida. The “Redistricting Wars” started last Summer after President Trump pressured Texas Republicans to redraw their maps to help him secure a majority in Congress.
In California, voters passed a map drawn by the legislature to counteract the Texas gerrymander, giving Democrats an extra 6 to 7 seats in Congress. In Utah, a Republican gerrymander was struck down that is expected to give Democrats an extra seat there.
If Virginia passes the map, Democrats are expected to gain 4 seats in Congress in the Commonwealth this year.
In chart form, here’s the breakdown. We’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
| State | Seat Net Gain Range |
| California | DEM +6-7 |
| Virginia (if the DEM gerrymander passed) | DEM +4 |
| Utah | DEM +1 |
| North Carolina | GOP +1 |
| Missouri | GOP +1 |
| Ohio | GOP +0-2 |
| Florida (if they drew a new GOP gerrymander) | GOP +0-5 |
| Texas | GOP +3-5 |
Team “Yes” and Team “No” on Your Airwaves:
The two groups at the center of the redistricting measure, the anti-redistricting Virginians for Fair Maps and the pro-redistricting Virginians for Fair Elections, began circulating ads and mailers across Virginia in the weeks leading up to the beginning of early voting. Now, the grasp of interest groups over airwaves and headlines is becoming inescapable.
Virginians for Fair Elections, the pro-”Yes” group, has the money advantage with over $22 million raised so far. This is the same group airing ad spots featuring former President Obama, as well as various officeholders from different parts of Virginia.
The anti-amendment group Virginians for Fair Maps, which is co-chaired by Jason Miyares in his first post-office dive back into state politics, has yet to break the half-million mark.
Another group, the Democracy and Justice PAC, came under fire for sending mailers which featured images of members of the Ku Klux Klan in regalia and acts of anti-Black police brutality during the Civil Rights Era. In invoking these images, the mailers promote the idea that redistricting will disenfranchise Black voters.
Attorney General Jay Jones released a statement following the circulation of the mailers:
“As Virginia’s first Black Attorney General, I take very seriously the history that is being invoked in these mailers. Reports indicate that a group opposing the redistricting referendum has sent materials to Black voters that misuse imagery from the Civil Rights Movement and even invoke Jim Crow while falsely suggesting the measure threatens Black representation(…)”
