Today, at an undisclosed location in Virginia, Republicans in the House of Delegates select a new leader ahead of the November election. Minority Leader Todd Gilbert alerted his caucus last week that he will step down from his position in anticipation of being selected as the US Attorney for Western Virginia. Gilbert said in a statement on May 21st that he wants his caucus to be ready for his departure, should he get the job.
Former Majority Leader Terry Kilgore won the leadership election. Kilgore, who has served the most southwestern tip of the Commonwealth for thirty years, challenged Gilbert for the Minority Leader position after House Republicans lost their majority in the 2023 elections, but came up short.
The mustachioed and folksy Delegate from coal country won against Minority Whip Michael Webert in part due to his fundraising prowess, sources in the House Republican caucus told State Navigate. Without Glenn Youngkin’s major financial support, Republicans in Virginia are likely to be heavily outspent by the Democratic coordinated campaign between Abigail Spanberger and whoever her running mates will be. Virginia Republicans believe the obvious culprit behind their 2023 losses was simply being heavily outspent by Democrats, so Kilgore’s fundraising capabilities made him a heavy favorite going into the election. In the 2023 election cycle, Kilgore raised $1.73 million as Majority Leader, which is more than Gilbert’s $1.62 million haul during that same cycle; Webert raised $433,000 in the same period.
Analysis by State Navigate found that Kilgore is one of the more bipartisan members of the House Republican caucus, ranked as the 10th most bipartisan member of the current legislative term. Gilbert is the third-most conservative member of the House, and Webert is the eighth-most conservative. These rankings are not entirely perfected, as our team works on delivering our W-NOMINATE content to the public, but are in the ballpark of where our final analysis will rank each member of the House ideologically.
With the creation of the ‘purple caucus’ in mid-April, which showed some frustration amongst a few swing-district members with Gilbert (particularly from House Republican Caucus Chair Amanda Batten), Kilgore’s voting record trending closer to that of swing district members may have earned him support from Republicans in competitive territories going into the November election this year. We don’t know for sure, as the rollcall for the leadership vote is not public, not even an official tally.
Kilgore could have his work cut out for him this year with Trump in the White House. As one Republican operative put it: “Republicans will lose 8 to 9 seats due to the environment, redistricting, and the absolute disaster at the top of the ticket.” Between April 17th and May 1st, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all moved the Virginia Governor’s race toward a probable Abigail Spanberger victory.
Nary an outlet has released a House of Delegates forecast, of course, but State Navigate will be publicly releasing its statewide and House of Delegates forecast for the 2025 Virginia elections 100 days before the election, and one month after its first-ever Forecast Launch Fundraiser on June 29th in Richmond, at which Minority Leader Kilgore will be speaking.
