“I wish I had an answer to that, because I’m tired of answering that question.” –Yogi Berra (and median voters)
In 2017, Midlothian evolved into an unexpected battleground in the House of Delegates when Democrat Larry Barnett lost to Republican incumbent Roxann Robinson. Democrats had scarcely invested in the old House District 27 that year, and tried making up for it in 2019 when Barnett challenged her a second time, only to come up short once again.
Unlike 8 years ago, Virginia Democrats are making sure they don’t miss an opportunity in trying to finally flip a Midlothian-based House of Delegates district blue. House District 73 is one of, if not the fastest-growing district by population in the Commonwealth, rapidly turning the district blue. Transplants from Northern Virginia and blue-leaning states like New Jersey are moving to the Richmond, VA area, powering its leftward shifts, including in District 73.
In 2023, Mark Earley Jr. (R) coasted to a 9-point victory with little opposition from Democrats in what was then an open seat. Now, former congressional candidate Leslie Mehta (D) is making sure Earley has a fight on his hands this year, having raised nearly 3x as much as the incumbent. Regardless of the winner, it’s more likely than not that this race will be between a 2-point Earley victory to a 2-point Mehta victory. In the State Navigate forecast, Mark Earley is a slight favorite for re-election, with a 61% chance of winning re-election, and a projected margin of victory for the freshman incumbent by 1.8%.
Earlier this week, State Navigate conducted a poll thanks to a series of donations to our public polling fund. It is the second non-partisan public poll of a state legislative district this year; no other organization other than State Navigate plans to regularly conduct these. While political insiders (legislators, caucuses, lobbyists and interest groups) have the money to pay pollsters to conduct private internal polls for state legislative districts, we are a nonpartisan nonprofit that aims to make every bit of data on state governance available to the public, for free. This includes polling as well as various data including election results, demographic data, campaign finance data, unbiased ideological calculations for incumbent legislators, news aggregation, original reporting, and more.
TOP QUESTIONS
Unsurprisingly, Governor Youngkin is above water in his approval rating in this seat, which he won by double digits in 2021. 51% of likely voters approve of the job Governor Youngkin has done, while 47% disapprove. President Trump, however, is underwater, which is likewise unsurprising since he narrowly lost the district last year. 53% of likely voters disapprove of the job he has done, and only 46% approve.
Abigail Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi are narrowly favored to win the 73rd District this year. However, Jason Miyares is solidly favored to carry the 73rd in the race for Attorney General despite the seat’s previous presidential vote. Most importantly, the race for the House of Delegates is neck-and-neck, but incumbent Delegate Mark Earley has a narrow lead.
OTHER QUESTIONS AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Perhaps the most interesting answers to our survey came when we asked voters whether they have moved to Chesterfield County since last year’s Presidential election. 9% of likely voters in the 73rd say they have moved into the district from elsewhere in Virginia or from another state since then. When examining these likely voters, it shows that even if Delegate Earley wins re-election this year, he is more likely than not on borrowed time, given the continued development of new housing in the district. Most people moving to Richmond over the years are ideologically liberal, and the 73rd is no exception to this. Let’s examine these likely voters.
These voters are more racially diverse than those who haven’t moved to Chesterfield since last year’s presidential election. Those who have been in the 73rd before the Presidential election broke down 81% white, 10% Black, 3% Latino, 4% Asian. Those who have moved since the Presidential election are 79% white, 18% Black, and 3% Latino. Most of the transplants are moving into newer developments in the western part of the district: 82% are from what we classify as the “Developing Rurals,” whereas 18% are from the “Richmond Suburbs.”
They’re also more ideologically liberal. The post-2024 Election Day transplants broke down 31% liberal, 29% moderate, and 29% conservative, vs. those who haven’t moved since last year breaking down 19% liberal, 42% moderate, and 35% conservative. In the 2024 presidential vote, 66% said they voted for Kamala Harris and 31% said they voted for Donald Trump. Residents who were here for last year’s election broke evenly between Trump and Harris, with a Harris +1.5 result vs. the actual 2024 result of Harris +1.1. In all likelihood, the new electorate of HD-73 voted for Harris by 3 to 5 points last year; we’ve weighted our recall as Harris +4 accordingly.
Most of the votes in this seat, which are from older, white, wealthy, and educated voters, will have been cast before Election Day. 16% of respondents said they have either already voted by mail or plan to vote by mail, and 51% said they have either already voted early in-person or will vote early in-person. In 2024, 62% of votes in the district were early; although, there could be a potential survey bias amongst people who say they plan to vote early and instead end up voting on Election Day. Regardless, this seat’s vote composition will be closer to 2024’s in vote method. By the time of our survey, 53% of likely voters said they had already voted: 73% said they voted early in-person and 27% said they voted by mail.
Less frequent voters in this district lean Democratic in the race for Governor, with the exception of voters who haven’t voted in any of the previous four general elections (2024, 2023, 2022, 2021). Sears’ support comes from more high-propensity voters than Spanbergers’.
The race for HD-73 will be incredibly tight, with the most likely scenario being a split-ticket result for, at least, the race for Attorney General, and Democrats winning the seat in 1 to 3 of the remaining contests we’ve asked.
Full toplines and crosstabs for this poll can be found here.
