In Norfolk, the room smells like 2017.
Eight years ago, President Obama held a rally at Virginia Commonwealth University’s Siegel Center in Richmond, Virginia, for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam. The crowd drew over 7,000 people. Fast forward four years, and at the same venue, that number dwindled to ~2,000, an indicative sign that Democrats were in trouble going into Election Day.
On Saturday, Obama held his first political rally in Hampton Roads since he ran for re-election in 2012. The Democratic coordinated campaign, according to familiar sources, determined that Obama would be best suited to come to Hampton Roads this time, thanks to strong Democratic turnout in the Richmond area for early voting, as they’re being led into battle by Abigail Spanberger, who hails from the region.
Already at 10:00 AM, thousands lined up outside of Chartway Arena at Old Dominion University for the rally featuring the President as he campaigned for Spanberger. By noon, the arena began to swell as top Virginia Democrats warmed up the crowd for the main event at 3:30 PM.
Those headliners included the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Jay Jones, a native son of Norfolk. There was speculation on whether Jones would be at the event, given that he has not appeared on the campaign trail with Spanberger since the various scandals of his that were unveiled at the beginning of October.
Following Jones was the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor, Ghazala Hashmi, Virginia Democratic Party Chair, and Richmond State Senator Lamont Bagby, Senate President pro Tempore Louise Lucas, Congressman Bobby Scott, US Senator Tim Kaine, and Speaker of the House of Delegates Don Scott. In the nearest stand to the stage stood former Governor Northam, Democratic activists, and elected officials. By 2:30, the crowd of over 7,000 people waited either on their feet or in their seats for the main event: Spanberger and Obama.
According to the Abigail Spanberger campaign, the crowd amassed 7,103. While we could not find a building official (i.e., a fire marshal) to comment on the accuracy of that number, we feel that it is in the ballpark when examining the maximum capacity of the venue, when examining the room, and reading about the arena’s capacity: according to Wikipedia, the arena has 7,319 seats. There’s room for 8,472 for basketball games and 9,520 for concerts. By the time of the main event, almost the entire floor was packed, ~¾ of the arena was seated (~¼ was blocked off). Regardless, it’s at least 3x the number of people that attended the 2021 Siegel Center rally, and roughly the same in attendance as the 2017 rally.
The room felt like a block party barbecue thanks to the DJ, playing classic hip-hop and R&B hits from the 1990s and earworms from the early and mid-2010s. “We all family,” he’d continue to say. Attendees danced and cheered to kill time as they anxiously waited for who they’ve been dying to see.
Our staff requested press access for the event too late, so we were instead given access to the floor, which was standing room only, close to the stage. It felt like a concert as people awkwardly tried to inch their way closer to the podium (whether by asking people who have already been standing there or not), with side-eyes sometimes given to such attendees by their fellow Obama lovers.
Finally, Spanberger arrived at 3:00, outlining her background and plans for governance come January should she win. Thirty minutes later, the President walked out on stage to a raucous crowd that finally got what they were waiting for. He pulled out classic lines such as “Don’t boo, vote,” and railed against the Trump administration.
Republicans Fall Behind 2021 Turnout
Republicans who were on the ground in Virginia in 2021 have fond memories of the year. Youngkin never got a President out to campaign with him, but he still had rockstar energy. “I was there for 2017 and 2021, and lemme tell you, this ain’t 2021,” according to one top Republican operative in Virginia. “The Monday rally in Leesburg, big, thousands. Also a huge one the weekend before at Tom Leonard’s parking lot in Short Pump, and a hangar in Chesterfield.”
Nearly a thousand people came to each of these rallies, with the exception of the Loudoun County Fairgrounds, which drew a massive 2,000 according to Loudoun Now. “The moment folks knew we had a rockstar candidate, in that we were likely going to pull this thing off. People could not get in… it was a mess in terms of congestion, traffic, which in campaign terms is a great thing. They picked a field and overflowed it,” said another Republican operative in Virginia.
At the same hangar in Chesterfield County last Thursday, Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) held a rally with the Attorney General of Utah, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, four Chesterfield-based Delegates, and House Minority Leader Terry Kilgore. About 60 people (not including staff) came to the event; the room was incredibly quiet.
Youngkin’s star power seems to have faded compared to 2021, as well. On the same day as the Obama rally, Youngkin headlined a rally at Patrick Henry College in Purcellville, Virginia for Delegate Geary Higgins and this year’s Republican statewide ticket. Generously, the crowd likely had at least 175 attendees, and no more than 250.
All in all, Republicans, Democrats, and independent observers who have examined 2017, 2021, and this election all agree: if you’re going by what the ground feels like, this is going to be much closer to 2017 than 2021. That bodes well for Democrats on Tuesday; the one statewide Democrat who may not be able to enjoy the fruits of a Democratic wave however, of course, is Jay Jones in the race for Attorney General given his persona non-grata status. If he does lose to Jason Miyares, though, it will be because his scandals were a deal-breaker for enough Democrats for them to either pull the lever for Miyares or to leave their ballot for Attorney General blank, not because of massive Republican turnout.
