There are some things you hear one time, and you don’t necessarily feel inclined to take it at face value. Twice, though, and the mind begins to wonder; and once you hear the same thing three times, and every instance onward, it begins to reshape the landscape of what you knew to be true. If we could sum up the whispers we have heard concerning a certain incumbent representing the Virginia Peninsula, it would be the following– Amanda Batten didn’t want this.
It was an open secret in Virginia Republican politics as early as late last year that Amanda Batten didn’t want to run for re-election in 2025 in House District 71. According to three Virginia Republican sources familiar with the incumbent’s ambitions at the beginning of 2025, Batten planned to retire from the General Assembly this year and instead run for Chair of the Republican Party of Virginia.
But the rally of support behind State Senator Mark Peake from the Republican establishment, including Governor Youngkin, obliterated that path for her. Leadership in the Republican House Caucus simultaneously insisted she run for re-election to maximize the possibility of holding her seat this November, and evidently, she obliged.
As a result, a rematch has been established between Batten and Democrat Jessica Anderson, a social media creator and public school employee in the Williamsburg-James City County School District. Both candidates are running to become the next Delegate for District 71, which contains Williamsburg City, most of James City County, and eastern New Kent County. In 2023, District 71 was decided by 667 votes, or 1.9%, making it the third-closest race in the House of Delegates that year.
The close result was a surprise to many in the political class– most expected Batten to easily win against Anderson. By the summer, Anderson had been triaged by the House Democratic Caucus. Despite Batten massively outspending Anderson in advertising and independent expenditures, having reported over $600,000 during the last cycle, she only won by a gnat’s eyebrow.
Although Youngkin carried this district in 2021, Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine both won their respective contests here by 5 points in 2024. This is due in part to an influx of voters from closer to the Capital region, who moved where houses and land are less expensive in neighboring New Kent, and the district’s demographics: Its electorate is chock-full of wealthy, educated voters who have been moving leftward no matter the electoral conditions during the Trump era.
It was in the years prior to redistricting in 2021 that Virginia Democrats saw pre-Batten HD-96, then represented by Republican Delegate Brenda Pogge, as a reach to flip in favor of the Democrats during the 2019 election cycle. Batten was Pogge’s chosen successor, having worked for her as a legislative aide as well as former Virginia Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment, Jr. Batten would go on to attend the UVA Sorensen Political Leaders Program before being handpicked to run in Pogge’s wake. After completing the program, it was ‘anchors aweigh’ for the GOP Caucus. They had their model candidate, a well-educated young woman who had already worked in the Virginia GOP and knew the rhythms and the attitude of the party.
She went on to win the vote by a touch over six points against Democratic candidate Mark Downey. In defense of the seat, she again coasted to victory by 11 points against Downey in the next election– and along came redistricting, drawing her into a district that would vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
One thing to remember is that this district tilts Democratic– more Democratic than Batten may realize, at least according to her voting record. Batten is the twelfth-most conservative Republican in the Virginia House of Delegates, according to State Navigate’s W-NOMINATE data, but this perception is somewhat softened by her being a blonde white woman from the suburbs. Rather than voting closely with other Republicans in districts that voted for Kamala Harris, such as Carrie Coyner, Kim Taylor, or A.C. Cordoza, Batten instead aligns herself more with Republicans who represent firmly rural and safely conservative seats, such as Nick Freitas and Tim Griffin.
In an exclusive interview with Delegate Batten, we asked her for her take on the data, and how she viewed herself ideologically, providing a succinct statement–
“Ideologically I would say that I’m always open to hearing other people’s perspectives. And if someone has a better argument, then I’m always willing to change my perspective.”
Perhaps it’s Batten’s adjustability that’s also softened her image; she speaks proudly of the bills that she has passed with bipartisan support, and has even pledged her support for legislation that was brought to her by one of her constituents.
There’s a common misconception that a Republican female lawmaker is inherently less conservative than a Republican male lawmaker with a nearly-identical voting record. This is quite the astounding shortcut that lower-information voters may use, and a myth that we can firmly dispel because neither our nor any data set particularly cares what gender a candidate is. There is Amanda Batten, there is Jessica Anderson, and there is a demonstrably wide ideological gap between the two of them. Who HD-71 chooses to represent them will come down to the issues, the campaign, and how well they navigate the respective challenges of both.
As a foil to Batten’s staunch conservative Republican record, Anderson is positioning herself as much more progressive than the average Virginia Democrat running in swing districts for the Virginia House this year. A key part of her strategy this year is to turn out more college students at the College of William and Mary and other residents in Williamsburg to pad her margins and offset her likely poor performances in the exurban and rural parts of the district. It’s probably going to work, too: Voter registration in Williamsburg as of October 1st is the third-highest it’s been since 2016, standing at 11,408. That’s 1,168 more voters in Williamsburg than there were registered two years ago.
Adding to Batten’s electoral woes is that she is being firmly outraised by her opponent, unlike in 2023. Thus far, Anderson has raised $741,848 to Batten’s $443,725. What Anderson lacks in receipts from PACs like Clean Virginia or lobbying interests like Dominion Energy, she has made up for in smaller, four-figure donations and a surge in Democratic caucus support. Batten is one of three Republican Delegates in a competitive race this year to receive support from Clean Virginia, the other two being Carrie Coyner and David Owen.
Anderson’s support from the House Democratic Caucus is self-explanatory, but the spike in individual donors is in part due to her online presence on the social media app TikTok, where her official, campaign-affiliated account has amassed a following of a whopping 633,000 users. It’s here that Anderson connects with voters the most (most of whom obviously live outside of the 71st); her videos have a combined 31.6 million views as she discusses access to reproductive health care, current events within the federal government, access to early childhood education, low teacher pay, and, on one occasion, relieving herself while on a run.
That last one could have been Anderson’s biggest blunder so far, and the video gave her opponent’s campaign and the Virginia GOP the opportunity of a lifetime to use it against her, only 5 days before the election. While this certainly got some play in the Twittersphere and local news, it was a slap on the wrist compared to an earlier article from Fox News criticizing her opinion on parental influence over curriculum, which was amplified by the Fairfax County GOP X account. While this video was recorded in 2021 in the lead-up to the upcoming Gubernatorial election, as it urged voters to turn out for Democrat Terry McAuliffe over Glenn Youngkin, there is now an opportunity for her opponents to circulate it again as they did in 2023, this time on the airwaves. It was an unfavorable position to have 4 years ago, and it’s unlikely to have become popular since then.
Notoriety, as Anderson will be the first to tell you, can be a double-edged sword.
“The hardest thing is, I have so many things in my history box that can be taken out of context and made nefarious. I’m dealing with it right now with the current negative ad circulating, and it is what it is.”
There is an upside, Anderson tells us, to having her past charted so publicly: “I went from kind of this silly mom in the midst of COVID, just trying to stay sane– doing running vlogs, wearing an eggplant, ironically, and dancing to music or fundraising for really great causes– to becoming very politically engaged and learning in that realm(…) to running for office. So you’ve watched me grow on the internet and I think a lot of people have gotten to see that over the last five to six years.”
Thankfully for Anderson, her digital footprint doesn’t seem to have hurt her chances quite so much this year: Our forecast has HD-71 rated as the second-best flip opportunity for House Democrats, with a projected victory margin of 6.2% in favor of Jessica Anderson, with an 82% chance she ousts Batten.
We went to Williamsburg as Anderson and Ti’Juana Gholson, a candidate for the James City County Board of Supervisors, held a private event to ask her about herself and issues on the minds of voters in the 71st. Here’s our interview with her.
Amanda Batten was featured prominently in articles earlier this year regarding the “Purple Caucus,” an informal group of Delegates who represent swing districts across the Commonwealth. We asked Batten, who had previously been referred to as the leader of the Purple Caucus, about the feeling among the group going into November. Batten did not have much to tell us about the Caucus itself– instead, she pushed back on the title of being “leader” of the group:
“First of all, I did not form the Purple Caucus, that was reported earlier in another publication. I am a member of the Purple Caucus, I am not the lead of the Purple Caucus. The Purple Caucus was actually started before I joined it, because frankly, I [was in a, not] a ‘purple’ district prior to redistricting. So that existed before my time.”
Over a phone call, we asked Amanda Batten about her campaign, her outlook after her slim victory in 2023, and how she plans to deliver for her constituents. Here’s our interview with her.
With one month to go until the election, almost a million dollars invested across both candidates, and both campaigns fully primed going into November, only time will tell if this left-tilting district will flip into Democratic hands. If our forecast and the early votes coming in are any indication, Amanda Batten is in for the toughest fight of her career. She may not have wanted this, but it’s what she’s got.
This article was updated on October 6th, 2025 to reflect a correction in VA W-NOMINATE, which launched with several committee votes in its ideological calculations. Batten was listed as the 10th-most conservative member, and is now the 12th.
