The Mountain State has the privilege of being the first state to have a 2026 general election forecast for its upcoming state legislative elections this November. In its predecessor site, CNalysis, State Navigate successfully predicted the winner of 98/100 House of Delegates seats and 16/17 State Senate seats in the 2024 general election. The three seats missed that year were House of Delegates Districts 82 and 100, and State Senate District 5. All three narrowly went to Republicans.
While the war for control of the West Virginia legislature will largely be fought in the upcoming May primaries as ultra-conservative Republicans vie for control against the center-right, it is imperative to put the competitiveness of the general elections in context to understand how West Virginia will contribute to the national conversation on President Trump’s policies. President Trump put up his second-strongest state performance in West Virginia in the 2024 presidential election, right behind Wyoming.
West Virginia is the most Democratic-friendly state downballot in the country, based on how voters indicate their support for federal and state-level candidates. Democratic candidates for the state legislature typically outperform the Presidential candidates in legislative districts by double digits, regardless of the electoral environment. West Virginia Republicans are virtually certain to retain their supermajorities, but Democrats hope to gain ground in November by flipping Republican-held seats, especially given the potential hardline conservative uprising in the Republican primaries this year that will exclude Independents for the first time. Our forecasts indicate that either party can gain ground in both chambers; however, Republicans are slightly favored to expand their supermajorities in each.
Remarkably, Republicans seem more occupied with fighting with each other than fighting the opposition. They failed to field a candidate against Democratic Delegate Kayla Young, who narrowly won re-election in 2024 in a seat that voted for President Trump by 10 points. Former Delegate Ric Griffith is also running for his old seat in the House of Delegates in Kenova, making the district competitive, unlike in 2024. While Griffith campaigns and prepares his Pumpkin House, Republicans are duking it out in a three-way primary.
Republicans sense an opportunity in two Democratic-held seats in the legislature in their bid to make West Virginia Democrats extinct in the legislature. The most likely seat to flip is in Huntington’s Senate District 5, where incumbent Democrat Mike Woelfel declined to seek re-election. Democrats failed to recruit a candidate capable of making this seat highly competitive, so former gubernatorial candidate Chris Miller, son of Congresswoman Carol Miller, is likely headed to the Senate.
The other seat they are optimistic about flipping is an open seat in Wheeling’s House District 5, where incumbent Democrat Shawn Fluharty isn’t seeking re-election and is running against Senator Laura Chapman in Senate District 1. Chapman must first survive a Republican primary against a well-funded opponent; conventional wisdom in both parties suggests that Chapman would fare worse in a general election against Fluharty, but he’ll have an uphill climb to the Senate regardless. While Fluharty pursues a promotion, Republicans are confident they can flip his seat, which President Trump won by 13 points.
Assuming Republicans hold State Senate District 1 and flip District 5, Democrats are hoping to at least offset District 5 flipping by flipping Morgantown and Fairmont’s Senate District 13. Democratic Delegate John Williams is running for a promotion against freshman incumbent Mike Oliverio, who narrowly won the seat in 2022. The State Navigate forecast puts Williams as a moderate favorite to flip the seat.
Democrats are also hoping to flip several other seats in the House of Delegates, all of which they are at least slight underdogs in the general election, including districts 100, 97, 99, 82, 78, 70, 75, 44, 55, and 24.
The forecast will be updated every day, so make sure to bookmark it and check in for the latest odds of victory in each state legislative seat this November.
