One of my worries this year is that I’ve been a little too focused on Wisconsin.
But I can’t help it. I’ve dreamt of the day when there would be competitive state legislative elections in Wisconsin since high school, and it’s always been fun to play around in DRA and try to draw my own fair maps for the state legislature. This year I’ve lost sleep as I obsess over thinking about finalizing the predictions for the Wisconsin Assembly, with the hope that we’ll not only get the chamber right in our classic model but also get as many seats right as possible; I’ve studied the map and the data relentlessly. So while everyone else will be focusing on how Wisconsin votes for President, I’ll be focusing on seeing how many districts I successfully called in our classic model.
Here’s something to keep in mind as we tally the votes, though: Democrats will very likely win the popular vote for the Wisconsin Assembly, which is the only competitive chamber this year due to staggered terms in the State Senate. This is because there are just two seats where Republicans have been left uncontested while there are twelve seats where Democrats have been left uncontested. Our final forecast, however, has Republicans as the odds-on favorites to hold their majority.
There’s a caveat though, so let’s get into that forecast.
I feel very confident that Democrats will have a double-digit net gain in the Wisconsin Assembly, the question is just how high that net gain will be. Democrats should flip at least ten seats, nine of which will likely vote for Democrats by at least an eight-point margin. That’s how drastically different these maps are from the previous ones. Overall, though, the chamber is rated as Tilt Republican.
Seven core districts in the Wisconsin Assembly will decide the majority, and three more are competitive but will probably go to the party favored in the final rating. We’ll go over those first and then get into the core six.
In the 2022 Wisconsin Assembly election, I missed one seat by a narrow margin: AD-94, where Steve Doyle, who was elected during the 2011 recall elections, bested my Tilt R rating by 3%, or 756 votes, holding onto a seat that narrowly voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Doyle’s new seat has plenty of familiar territory and a slightly more favorable Democratic lean. His old districts in 2020 and 2022 narrowly voted for Trump, and his new one narrowly went to Biden – and when I say narrow, I mean by less than a point each. He is seen as a heavy favorite to win re-election in this La Crosse-county-based seat, and it’d certainly be an astonishing development for him to lose – this race has become less competitive in the final month of the campaign. Final rating: Likely Democratic hold.
When I listened to the FiveThirtyEight podcast in 2017 on the Gill v. Whitford case, Galen Druke covered the town of Sheboygan, Wisconsin, a Democratic-leaning town that was divided into two under the old Republican gerrymander about 55 miles north of Milwaukee. Under the new map, the town was kept together under the new Biden +4 AD-26.
Intra-party turmoil amongst Republicans here has been one of the resulting reasons this district, which narrowly voted for Scott Walker in 2018 but flipped to Tony Evers in 2022, was in our Tilt Democratic column this year but has since moved leftward. The county party is run by Trump fanatics who are dissatisfied with Assemblywoman Amy Binsfeld, who they accuse of being a “RINO.” Democrats, meanwhile, are united in electing former superintendent Joe Sheehan to the Assembly. I don’t know anyone in Wisconsin who expects that Republicans will be able to keep this seat, but given Binsfeld’s incumbency advantage in parts of the district, it’s not a far-fetched scenario she could pull off an upset. But I’m certainly not predicting that – this is a Lean Democratic flip.
The slightly Republican-leaning small town of Wasau in northern Wisconsin makes up most of Trump +1 HD-85, one of the most competitive districts in the Wisconsin Assembly, though it’s not one of the crucial seven that will likely decide the majority. This district voted for Tony Evers by 1 point in 2022 but has voted for Republicans in every other statewide election (besides for the Supreme Court) this decade.
It’s also a seat where, unfortunately, the election data is a bit wonky. A significant chunk of the district did not have a Democratic candidate for State Assembly in 2020 and 2022, so the Assembly vote was R+25 in each of those years. In 2018, the seat voted for Republican candidates by 8 points. Unlike AD-30, this town isn’t really trending either way; in 2020 it barely trended to the left, and in 2022, barely trended to the right. It’s a real tug-of-war between both parties.
Republican incumbent Patrick Snyder has represented the area since 2016 and is facing Democratic nominee Yee Leng Xiong, who would be the first Hmong Wisconsinite elected to the State Assembly. Snyder, however, has run a better campaign throughout the election and has represented most of the town during his tenure, and should be seen as a slight favorite to keep his seat; but if Harris flips this district that voted for Trump by half a percentage point in 2020, and by at least a four-point margin, then Xiong has a good shot at pulling off an upset. This is marked as a Tilt Republican hold.
One district that has become more competitive at the close of the campaign is Trump +1 AD-30, a seat that didn’t vote for a single Democrat in 2022, not even Tony Evers, but is trending so rapidly leftward that it’d be surprising if this Trump +1 district didn’t flip to Kamala Harris this year, even if she lost Wisconsin. Republican incumbent Shannon Zimmerman is running for re-election and has represented this Twin Cities exurb since 2016. He’s had competitive races on his hands before in 2018 and 2020 but won re-election by a decent margin regardless; 8 points in 2018, and 12 in 2020.
The new district is slightly more favorable than the competitive seat he represented during the 2010s, but still hasn’t been within a 5-point margin in its Assembly election results; it voted for Republicans by 7 points in 2018, 11 in 2020, and 7 in 2022. Zimmerman will assuredly have the closest race of his life this year given the outpour of investment from Democrats in trying to flip his seat, whereas he was usually a second-tier target under the 2010s map.
Zimmerman is running against Democratic nominee Allison Page, a former nurse and healthcare administrator from River Falls, the most Democratic-leaning town in the district. It also contains the town of Hudson, another area where Democrats are pounding the doors to try and get voters to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot. The rest of the district is largely rural. Both sides have poured a lot of money into the district despite its Republican lean. I do believe that, even when taking into account the leftward trends in the seat, this will be a narrow Republican win, but if Harris wins the seat by at least 4 points she could drag Page along the finish line. We have this as a Tilt Republican hold.
Democrat LuAnn Bird raised “just” $191,000 for her campaign in a Biden-won district in Greenfield in 2022 but came surprisingly close to beating Republican Bob Donovan. Democrats were largely focused on defense that year as they were working to prevent a Republican supermajority in the Assembly, but this year they’ve invested in Bird’s rematch against Donovan in the new Biden +2 AD-61. Bird has become the top-fundraiser amongst Assembly Democrats this year, raising a whopping $1.6M for her campaign. In 2022, this seat voted for Republican candidates for the Assembly by 1 point. With Democrats now investing in Bird and the leftward trends in the district, she should be seen as a slight favorite. We have this as a Tilt Democratic flip.
Republicans also got a strong candidate down south in the Fox Valley’s Biden +4 HD-53, former State Representative and Mayor of Neenah Dean Kaufert (R). Kaufert represented the district equivalent of this seat from 1990 to 2014 when he was elected as Mayor of Neenah. In 2018, he was left uncontested. Kaufert’s never lost a race in his life, but that’s not discouraging to Democratic nominee Duane Shukoski, who, like most Democratic candidates in competitive Assembly races this year, has outraised and outspent his Republican opponent.
It’s hard to quantitatively gauge Kaufert’s level of popularity since he hasn’t actually won a contested election in 10 years. The best you can really do is his last Assembly election in 2012 – while Romney carried his old district by 3 points, Kaufert won re-election by 29. Again though, that’s with a 22-year incumbency advantage – since Kaufert’s been out of the Assembly for so long and hasn’t run a real race in 10 years, the numbers here are mostly irrelevant. If four years is a lifetime in politics, ten is an eternity.
The current HD-53 voted for Democratic candidates by 0.3% in 2020, and by 4 points in 2022. In 2020, the district trended 5 points leftward and 1 point leftward in 2022. Harris will very likely carry this district by a wider margin than Biden in 2020, even if just by a hair – and Kaufert is likely to outrun Trump’s performance in the district. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if he pulled off an upset – he left office as Mayor in 2022, so it’s not like the majority of the likely electorate doesn’t probably know him. But since there’s a lack of quantitative data to determine if he’s popular enough in the community to overcome partisan polarization and the Democratic trends here, we’ve got this as a Tilt Democratic flip.
If the race for Biden +5 AD-21 were an open one, Democrats would probably be heavy favorites to flip this district that even voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. It isn’t, though, as ten-year incumbent Jessie Rodriguez (R) is running against Navy veteran David Marstellar Jr. (D). Rodriguez has raised the most money out of any Republican candidate for the Assembly during her campaign, amassing $865,000. The only Republican Latina in the legislature, Rodriguez has enjoyed crossover support from Democrats in her Oak Creek-based district, but it’s since been redrawn to where 40% of the seat is new to her.
Rodriguez has also slightly seen her support in the district decrease since Trump’s election – she was re-elected by 9.5% in 2018, 9.3% in 2020 and 8.4% in 2022 despite 2018 being the most Democratic-friendly environment. Her new district picked up Democratic-leaning precincts closer to the city, but Republicans are hoping that she’ll be able to peel off Democratic support amongst new Latino voters, which make up a higher share of the new parts of her district than the areas she’s represented. In 2020, this seat trended 3 points leftward and 2 points leftward in 2022. The district voted for Democratic candidates for the Assembly by 3 points, but there’s a caveat: the new Democratic-leaning parts of the districts were in the old AD-20, represented by Christine Sinicki (D), who’s been in the Assembly since 1998. Over time, an incumbency advantage will build up and can earn you 20 points worth of crossover support just as it did for Kaufert; Sinicki outran Biden’s performance in her district by 9 points in 2022, the best performance for any incumbent Democrat in the Assembly.
Typically when incumbents with proven crossover appeal like Rodriguez take on new territory in their district they represent, they perform closer to the partisan baseline of their district in general elections, earning what are called “normal votes” vs. the “personal votes” they earn after their time in office. In some cases, like Frank Burns in 2022, they may run closer to their performance in the areas they’ve represented than the partisan baseline. All this to say that, frankly, this is a very, very tough seat to predict.
However, again, context is important – Rodriguez was outspent by $223,000 in 2020’s pre-election report and $16,000 in 2022 – yet her performance shrunk anyways. It is possible though that irregular voters in the area simply didn’t come out in the midterm, which would track in an area like Oak Creek. Yet in other competitive Assembly districts like AD-51, which also consists of many irregular voters without a college degree that only come out to vote in presidential elections, the Democratic vote share decreased with similar campaign strength dynamics. This is a very difficult call, and if there’s any seat we have Democrats favored to pick up that goes the other way, it’s this one. This is a Tilt Democratic flip in our classic model.
You can guess which district is next, can’t you? If you had told me earlier this year when I was writing one of my midterm papers on this district that I’d end up having the Biden +8 AD-51 as a Toss-Up, I would have asked what the hell happened between then and November. I was adamant that this would be the year Todd Novak was a goner, quote: “Given the closeness of the district using 2022’s result, it’s certainly plausible that the majority could run through the 51st, but when context is added to the upcoming election it’s unlikely that will be the case and Novak loses this year to whomever his Democratic opponent will be.”
I almost entirely stand by my analysis in that paper today. I mentioned the “normal” vs. “personal” votes study I read during my first semester at Virginia Tech, mentioned John Mark Windle’s death-by-redistricting, but failed to remember someone like Frank Burns who was able to run double-digits ahead of Biden in areas that he had never represented. I had also neglected the trends in this district in 2020, when it trended 2 points to the right of the state. Perhaps I didn’t have the gigantic spreadsheet I have now on the Wisconsin Assembly, I don’t remember. Regardless, the 51st has become a much more competitive race than I (and likely the Democrats as well) thought it would be. After all, 47% of the district is new to Novak – and almost every state legislator who takes on new territory doesn’t have the same crossover appeal.
AD-51 voted for Democratic candidates for the State Assembly by 3 points in 2020, and then by just half a point in 2022. As mentioned during the AD-21 analysis, this rightward swing happened despite a bluer environment and this Driftless Region district being home to a lot of irregular voters. Unlike Rodriguez however, he actually outspent his opponent in 2022 in the pre-election finance report. Most importantly, unlike most Republicans in the Assembly this year, he isn’t being massively outspent by his opponent, realtor Elizabeth Grabe (D). While other candidates for the Assembly are being outspent by closer to half a million dollars, Novak has “only” been outspent by $170,000.
Part of Novak’s crossover appeal might be as simple as the fact he’s a gay Republican, and may be perceived as moderate by Democratic-leaning voters just for that; identity is arguably just as important as party in terms of “shortcuts” that can give voters (especially low-information ones) an idea of how a legislator will vote. Novak has touted his bipartisan record before, and even has a positive quote from Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) on his website thanking him. If you drive through the 51st district right now, you will see the area filled with homes that have Kamala Harris and Todd Novak signs.
I’ve underestimated Todd Novak before – I thought he would lose in 2018 and in 2020. His 2022 re-election wasn’t really competitive so it was an easy call. When I take into account the parts of the district where Democrats had an incumbency advantage, I think that Novak could persuade enough voters in the district to emerge victorious, especially because Kamala Harris may win the 51st by a slightly smaller margin than Joe Biden did in 2020. However, unless the Driftless Region swings hard to the right this year compared to 2020, due to taking on too much new territory and the decline of ticket-splitting, I think Novak loses re-election, but out of every single district in the Wisconsin Assembly I think I may be wrong on, it’s this one, probably due to my 2018 and 2020 whiplash. Three’s my lucky number, so we’ll see. This is a Tilt Democratic flip.
If Assembly Republicans lose the majority, it’s possibly due to a weak Senate campaign overlapping two Republican-held Assembly districts. If Democrat Jamie Wall wins his race for the State Senate by 7 points or more, there may not be enough ticket-splitting in the Assembly seats to save the Republican majority. Both sides feel good about one district each here, and the data gives them a reason to feel comfortable with the seat they think they’ll probably carry.
Democrats feel comfortable in their capability of flipping Biden +1 AD-89. Both sides landed a strong recruit here: Democrats got Brown County prosecutor Ryan Spaude (D) to run for the seat, and Republicans recruited Brown County Board of Supervisors Chairman Patrick Buckley (R). The 89th voted for Democratic candidates for the Assembly by half a percentage point in 2020, and 1.5% for Republicans in 2022, making it a true swing district. However, context is important here. 2022 was a Republican-leaning year and no serious Democratic campaign was waged in the precincts that make up the 89th that year – there was some effort in 2020, but not much, especially in comparison to this year with the tons of money being spent here by both parties. In 2022, every Democrat in the statewide contests carried the 89th, albeit narrowly in some cases, such as the US Senate race. This seat trended leftward in 2020 though by about 5 points, and again in 2022 by 2. It’ll be a close race, given how uncompetitive the State Senate has become, it’ll take more ticket-splitting than expected for this to go the other way. The 89th is a Lean Democratic flip.
Republicans feel comfortable in the neighboring district however, Trump +1 AD-88. In most scenarios, this is one of the likeliest seats to be the tipping point in Wisconsin this year, but Republicans feel confident enough in their candidate, businessman Benjamin Franklin (R), to allow him to be massively outspent by Brown County Democratic Party Chairwoman Christy Welch (D). To put it bluntly, it’s a ballsy move. In my view though, Republicans got a better candidate here – especially with a name like that. Franklin even jokes about it in his ads: “With a name like Ben Franklin, I have a lot to live up to, and that’s why I’m running for State Assembly. I may not be a founding father, but I am a proud father of two, a husband, and a small business owner.”
I started predicting state government elections in 2017 when Republicans nominated attorney John Adams (R) for Virginia Attorney General, and now this year with Franklin and Thomas Jefferson in Kentucky, I feel like I’ve caught two more Founding Fathers trading cards! Adams, by the way, overperformed his polling – I do believe that there’s at least a small “bump” for candidates that share names with the almost mythical-like status of the Founding Fathers, but the occurrence is so rare that I don’t know for certain, but I’d love to see some research on it (maybe I’ll do it myself if I can find the time some day).
Founding Father stuff aside, the district data’s good for Republicans on the surface level. In the State Assembly vote, it was R+7 in 2018 (when the districts here weren’t targeted if memory serves correct), R+4 in 2020 (when districts here were being targeted), and R+5 in 2022, though that year the seats weren’t being targeted. Unlike HD-89, this district voted for Republicans in two of the three statewide races: Senate and Treasurer. However, HD-88 had a slightly larger leftward trend in 2020 than the 89th’s, about 4 points; but a smaller one in 2022 at 1 point, so it pretty much evens out. Given the change in the statewide environment and campaign dynamics here between 2020 and 2022, I’ve become convinced that this seat may flip. It’s not what I feel in my gut but I’ve been able to analyze a lot of data here and I don’t think it bodes well enough for Republicans to be favored. By no means is this district a “lock” for Democrats, nor is the 89th a lock for Democrats – both of these will likely be within 2 points each. But given all data and qualitative analysis in front of me, I think Democrats have a slight edge in this seat. This is a Tilt Democratic flip.
In the State Senate, Democrats are nearly certain to break the Republican supermajority in the chamber this year – they only need to flip one Republican-held seat and they have four opportunities in front of them to do so. One is the aforementioned Biden +3 SD-30 in Green Bay, where Democrats have been running away with the race in the last month, and it is marked as a Likely Democratic flip. Their best target though is easily the Fox Valley’s Biden +8 SD-18, where the only question is whether Democrats will win that by more or less than the race for SD-30 despite differing partisan leanings – this seat is a Very Likely Democratic flip. Both of these Republican-held seats are open races, and Republicans have largely accepted that they will lose these seats in the final weeks of the campaign.
The other two districts in the Senate that Democrats are targeting are highly competitive and each have a Republican incumbent in them. First-term State Senator Joan Ballweg (R) was elected in a safely Republican seat in 2020 and has since been drawn into a Democratic leaning one, Biden +4 SD-14. Most of the district is new territory for her and Republicans aren’t as bearish on this seat as you’d think given that it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and goes into Dane County. We’ve got this as a Tilt Democratic flip.
The last seat to go over is the most competitive district in the State Senate, Biden +1 SD-8 which takes parts of the “WOW” counties and Milwaukee County. Republicans were disappointed when incumbent Dan Knodl (R) didn’t run for this seat, since he’s more moderate than the ardent conservative State Senator Duey Stroebel (R), who is now running for the 8th. This part of Wisconsin is more Republican-friendly down ballot, but not for conservatives like Stroebel. Harris is expected to do better than Biden in this seat given its trends during the Trump era, and it’s unlikely there will be enough voters that split their tickets for Knodl to pull him over the top. This is a Tilt Democratic flip.
In total, we have Democrats favored to net four seats in the State Senate, breaking the Republican supermajority. In the Assembly, they’re favored to net a whopping 16 seats, but Republicans are slight favorites to keep the majority overall, as there are more “Solid R” seats than “Solid D” seats. This will still be a very tight chamber, with plenty of room for upset by both parties; Republicans could easily outperform and win up to five more seats in the Assembly than they’re favored in, and Democrats could outperform and win an extra two seats in the Assembly.
