There perhaps hasn’t been a greater civil war between families in West Virginia since the Hatfields and McCoys.
With the West Virginia Republican Party holding closed primaries for the first time, cutting out Independent voters in the process, a wave of primary challengers has emerged on the shores of the various factions in the West Virginia legislature: Randy Smith’s acolytes, the Governor’s favorites, and the center-right, business-friendly Republicans.
Less than 10% of West Virginians Will Decide ~90% of Legislative Seats in 2026
Only 43% of West Virginia voters will be eligible to vote in the upcoming Republican primaries, and even fewer will actually turn out in May. Those who do vote will effectively determine the winner of 90% of seats in the West Virginia legislature.
In 2024, when both Republicans and Independents could vote in the Republican primary for Governor, about 70% of West Virginia voters were eligible to participate in what, in a deep-red state like West Virginia, is the real general election. But as a share of the electorate, only 19% of West Virginia voters participated in the Republican primary for Governor. Among Republicans and Independent voters, who were the only voters eligible to select the 2024 Governor via participating in the Republican primary, only 31% participated.
The number of people who decided the next members of Congress in the 2022 Republican primaries is even more depressing. Just 13% of West Virginia voters participated in the Republican primaries for Congress that year. Of the eligible voting population of Republicans and Independents, 21% participated.
In 2026, with Independents now barred from participating in the Republican primaries, it is likely that fewer than 10% of West Virginia voters will determine ~90% of seats in the West Virginia legislature.
The State Senate
The West Virginia Senate is currently controlled by an ultra-conservative faction of Republicans, led by Senate President Randy Smith, an ally of Governor Patrick Morrisey They’re defending their majority against a wave of center-right, business-friendly candidates led by Senator Tom Tabuko. For a very loose picture of the ideology of the West Virginia Senate in the 2025 session using LegiScan data in WNOMINATE, see here. State Navigate plans to scrape all rollcall data and create its WNOMINATE interactives & votes database for the West Virginia 2025-2026 term immediately following sine die.
Smith has a narrow majority in the chamber. He and the Governor are optimistic that removing Independents from the primary process will not only defend their majority but also expand it by defeating incumbent detractors. According to two sources familiar with the matter, the Senate will also receive substantial out-of-state spending from two out-of-state groups. One supported Morrisey’s 2024 gubernatorial run, and the other is a nationally notorious group that has elevated highly conservative candidates around the country, often aligned with the State Freedom Caucus Network. While not listed on the State Freedom Caucus Network’s website, there is a West Virginia Freedom Caucus. According to their website, there are 35 official members of the Freedom Caucus in the legislature, 29 in the House and 6 in the Senate.
9 of the Smith acolytes in the Senate face a primary challenger this May: Laura Wakim Chapman in State Senate District 1 (Morrisey +8), Mike Azinger in District 3 (Morrisey +6), Mark Maynard in District 6 (Morrisey +4), Kevan Bartlett in District 8 (Moore Capito +3), Rollan Roberts in District 9 (Morrisey +0.2), Jay Taylor in District 14 (Morrisey +26), Darren Thorne in District 15 (Morrisey +40), Jason Barrett in District 16 (Morrisey +46), and Anne Charnock in District 17 (Moore Capito +17).
5 of Smith’s ideological detractors (based on W-NOMINATE analysis) are facing primary opponents (although the only one supported by Smith and Governor Morrisey is the one facing Tabuko): Eric Tarr in State Senate District 4 (Miller +3), Vince Deeds in District 10 (Morrisey +3), Bill Hamilton in District 11 (Morrisey +3), Ben Queen in District 12 (Moore Capito +12), and Tom Tabuko in District 17 (Moore Capito +17).
2 districts feature Republican primaries in open seats, in which both factions will support a candidate: State Senate Districts 2 (Morrisey +5) and 3 (Morrisey+6). District 2 is represented by Charles Clements, who is against Smith. District 3 is essentially an open seat, as incumbent Trenton Barnhart was appointed on January 28th to succeed Donna Boley, another anti-Smith incumbent.
3 districts don’t feature a Republican primary: former gubernatorial candidate Chris Miller, son of Carol Miller, is the sole candidate in Democrat-held District 5 and is likely headed to the Senate given the district’s partisan lean and lack of a strong Democratic candidate. In District 13, Randy Smith detractor Mike Oliverio is in a highly competitive race against Democratic Delegate John Williams. Given that the seat would be easier to pick up in an open race with a more conservative candidate, it’s unsurprising Oliverio didn’t attract a primary challenger. In District 7, the appointed incumbent, Zach Maynard, a Smith acolyte, faces no primary opposition.
That brings the total to 16 Republican primaries for the 19 seats up in the West Virginia Senate this year. The winners of 15 of these primaries are virtually certain to become Senators next January, as they’re uncompetitive in the general election: the only seat in the Senate with at least a somewhat competitive election is Senate District 1, thanks to Delegate Shawn Fluharty (D) running in the general election.
In all likelihood, the most vulnerable pro-Smith Republican in the Senate is Anne Charnock, given Governor Morrisey’s poor performance in the district in the 2024 gubernatorial primary. Among the anti-Smith Republicans, the most vulnerable is likely Vince Deeds, given both Governor Morrisey’s 2024 gubernatorial primary performance and the closeness of Deeds’ 2022 primary, when he garnered 49% of the vote in a three-way race, beating the runner-up by 7%.
The House of Delegates
The House of Delegates is mostly comprised of business-friendly standard-bearer conservatives, led by Speaker Roger Hancock. 44 districts in the House of Delegates will hold Republican primaries this year, 40 of which have at least a 95% chance of electing a Republican this November, according to the State Navigate forecast.
The ideology and factions within the West Virginia House are less clear-cut than in the Senate, and the divide in the House is certainly not as large as the upper chamber’s. For a very loose picture of the ideology of the West Virginia House in the 2025 session using LegiScan data in WNOMINATE, see here.
As noted at the beginning of the State Senate section, there is a West Virginia Freedom Caucus, but it is unclear whether it is part of the national network. Their most likely ringleaders are Delegates Elias Coop-Gonzalez and David Green. The caucus hasn’t posted anything on its website since the Summer of 2024 and is largely inactive and disorganized, according to sources familiar with it. A potential rebranding with Green as the leader is in the works.
Of the 44 Republican primaries in the West Virginia House, 31 feature an incumbent. Of those incumbents, 3 were endorsed by the Freedom Caucus in 2024: Gary Howell in HD-87 (Morrisey +41), Laura Kimble in HD-71 (Moore Capito +11), and Dean Jeffries in HD-61 (Moore Capito +7). David Green, the likely new ringleader of an emerging hard-right faction in the House, is also facing primary opposition in District 36 (David Miller +2); he was not endorsed by the Freedom Caucus in 2024. This indicates that most primary challenges to House incumbents this year come from the right, unlike in the Senate, where most come from the center.
