Last week, Virginia Democrats unleashed their own October surprise on the opposition.
Democratic leadership in the Virginia General Assembly, in a cutthroat procedural move on a technicality, called for a special session just 8 days before Election Day in Virginia to begin the process of passing a proposed constitutional amendment that could go to the voters in Spring 2026.
Due to a special session last year not being formally adjourned, Democratic leaders in the legislature were able to beckon members of the General Assembly, as well as Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, to come back to Richmond on Monday, October 27th. In all likelihood, the session will at least last through Wednesday, according to Brandon Jarvis of Virginia Scope, who broke the news about the redistricting session last week. As the redistricting war began over the Summer when Texas enacted a new congressional map that ensures their ability to pick up seats in the midterm elections, no matter the environment, Senate President pro Tempore Louise Lucas insinuated that, despite the constitutional amendment process, Virginia would enter the fight.
Conventional wisdom at the time was that Virginia could not change their congressional maps ahead of 2026. In 2020, a constitutional amendment was passed that enacted a redistricting commission consisting of legislators and citizens, who ultimately failed to do their job at enacting a map for the 2020s, at which point the Virginia Supreme Court appointed two special masters to draw the legislative and congressional maps for the decade.
To repeal the commission, the General Assembly must approve the proposed amendment to send to the voters in two separate General Assembly sessions. The Virginia General Assembly adjourned sine die for the 2025 general session; however, there was no official adjournment for the May 2024 special session, which was called for by Governor Youngkin.
The goal for Democrats in the legislature is to pass the amendment again in the upcoming general session, which starts in January, and have voters approve the amendment no sooner than 90 days thereafter. They’d also need the next Governor’s support for changing the primary date from June to later in the year; thus far, Abigail Spanberger, who is virtually certain to become the next Governor of Virginia, has indicated she does not support Virginia entering the redistricting wars.
The session not only tries to put Virginia on a path to enact a Democratic gerrymander on the congressional (and perhaps legislative) level, but it also takes key Delegates off the battlefield on the Republican side of the aisle. The State Navigate forecast gives every Democratic incumbent in the House of Delegates, which is up this year, at least a 90% chance of winning re-election. Meanwhile, Republicans have over a dozen incumbents who are in competitive seats. Unlike a general session, incumbents can still fundraise for their campaigns, but it still hurts Republicans’ efforts to get out the vote while early voting locations are open.
Some Virginia Republicans are spinning the session as a sign Democrats think they are going to lose all of the statewide elections on Tuesday, but that bears no evidence and is mere speculation. While the race for Attorney General is becoming increasingly competitive in the State Navigate forecast, Spanberger becoming Governor is a near-certainty, and Ghazala Hashmi becoming the next Lieutenant Governor is quite likely. If anything, the move by Democrats shows their confidence in retaining control of the House of Delegates and winning the Lieutenant Governor race, at least, by forcing Hashmi and every Democratic incumbent back into the Capitol.
At a time when the Democratic base is demanding that Democrats in power pull out every stop available to fight dirty against Republicans, it seems that Speaker Scott, Majority Leader Surovell, and President pro Tempore Louise Lucas want to get filthy. This is perhaps the most cutthroat political maneuver Democratic leaders in the General Assembly have pulled in decades, so they’re satisfying the desires of leaders in Washington like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, as well as those of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which made large six-figure contributions last week to Democrats, including Abigail Spanberger.
Tensions are expected to run high tomorrow, that’s for certain. We’ll keep you posted.
