One year ago today, we released our first statewide poll in Virginia. We’ve followed up with those respondents, plus those we spoke with for the redistricting referendum.
Democrats are poised for their largest win in Virginia congressional elections of the 21st century.
Not since 1990 have Virginia Republicans fallen below 40% of the vote in Virginia’s US House elections, when an independent garnered enough support to keep them below what many have long seen as their “floor” in Virginia elections. That floor may still hold, but the new State Navigate poll suggests that the bottom may be falling out.
We followed up with several hundred respondents from our October 2025 Virginia polls, including two statewide surveys and three House of Delegates surveys, plus a few hundred from our April poll on the Virginia redistricting referendum. The State Navigate team conducted the survey as part of an ongoing effort to measure recall bias, which we hope to release next week.
In the survey, we asked respondents about their likelihood to vote this year, their opinion of President Trump, their intentions to vote in the ongoing election for the 11 seats in the US House of Representatives in Virginia, and how they politically identify. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 20 points, with 59% of the vote to Republicans’ 39%, and 3% of voters undecided.
If Democrats did win the popular vote by 20 points in Virginia’s US House of Representatives elections, it’d be a 16-point swing leftward from 2024’s US House results and likely result in a 9-2 Democratic delegation.
You can find more details, findings, and crosstabs below.
