Picture, if you will, a lobster. Or maybe, a scorpion?

Imagine it superimposed over a map of Virginia– the tail (or stinger) encircles Northern Virginia. The front pincers descend, on the eastern side, through the Piedmont to south of the James River, and on the other, across the college town of Harrisonburg to the border with West Virginia. This is roughly the span of Virginia’s newly-drawn 7th Congressional District. 

Democrats in the General Assembly got the proposal, lobster and all, across Abigail Spanberger’s desk this past week. Republicans challenged the amendment for a second time in the Tazewell courts, even after the Virginia Supreme Court ruled in favor of putting the amendment to a vote. A circuit court judge in Tazewell has halted early voting, which is slated to start next week, but the Virginia Supreme Court is more than likely to take the case up and make a call on whether early voting can proceed.

The aforementioned lobster tail/stinger carves a curious shape, one that neatly corrals the Fairfax home of one Delegate Dan Helmer into its Congressional confines. Helmer, a retired Captain in the U.S. Army, has long been a hopeful for a federal promotion. After two prior campaigns for higher office in which he did not win either primary in the old and current 10th Congressional District, Helmer announced his plans to run for the freshly-drawn seat last week. 

Helmer’s announcement was met with a mixture of immediate endorsement and immediate critique. It was hardly a secret that Helmer, Lieutenant to House Chair Don Scott (D-Portsmouth), played a key role in pushing the redistricting amendment. According to reporting from Virginia Scope, a district for Helmer was “a non-negotiable” for Scott in mobilizing the redistricting effort. While Helmer says that he recused himself for the mapmaking portion of the amendment, his influence over the district boundaries is indisputable. Hours before the map dropped, Helmer refused to take any questions outside of the topic of firearm legislation.

Helmer notched the support of Speaker Don Scott, former Governor Ralph Northam, Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City), and a slew of some 40 other endorsements since his announcement. His colleagues from across the aisle are less enthused.

According to reporting from the Virginia Mercury, Del. Joe McNamara (R-Roanoke), did not mince words about his feelings towards Helmer’s involvement in the redistricting effort—

“You have a leader in the Virginia House of Delegates, on the Democratic side, who crafts maps for his benefit, and he’s just the next one. They’re enacting laws to help them get elected to Congress, not enacting laws to help Virginians get ahead. They’re helping themselves get ahead. It was so transparent, I hope the voters can really see through it.”

If the redistricting amendment is approved, Helmer would face a Democratic primary contest against J.P. Cooney, a former federal prosecutor who brought two cases against President Trump while working under special counsel Jack Smith. 

Cooney hit the ground running. After he announced his candidacy, his campaign had reportedly raised $200,000 within the first 24 hours. Helmer announced his candidacy one week later. Not one to be outdone, he announced that he had raised over $300,000 in political contributions during the first 24 hours of his campaign.

However, the August 4th primaries are still five months away. While there are only two declared candidates so far, there is potential for more to throw their hats in the ring. Helmer is far from certain to win the primary should he face competitive opposition, too: when analyzing what parts of the district Helmer has run in throughout his career, it’s a remarkably small percentage of the district’s population and, more importantly, Democratic primary voters. Using vote totals from the 2025 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor, it’s evident Helmer could be beaten in the primary by a Democrat from Arlington, Falls Church, or areas deeper within the Fairfax County portion of the district, such as Annandale, West Springfield, West Falls Church, or Burke.

Last Helmer Ballot Appearance	# of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes	% of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes
Never	46,560	89.7%
6/12/18 (VA-10)	1,384	2.7%
6/18/24 (VA-10)	1,939	3.7%
11/4/25 (HD-10)	2,050	3.9%

The most likely of the candidates to face Helmer and Cooney in November would be either former Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, who ran for Congress in the 10th district against Helmer when former Rep. Jennifer Wexton chose not to seek reelection, and Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D-Prince William), who ran when then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger chose not to seek re-election in the 7th. Either candidate could declare their candidacy and have a shot at spoiling Helmer’s plans, but so far neither has outright announced their intentions to run.

Last Guzman Ballot Appearance	# of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes	% of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes
Never	45,827	88.2%
4/2/21 (HD-31)	111	0.2%
6/18/24 (VA-7)	4,694	9.0%
11/4/25 (HD-22)	1,301	2.5%

Last Filler-Corn Ballot Appearance	# of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes	% of 2025 Lt. Gov DEM Primary Votes
Never	44,590	85.7%
4/2/21 (HD-41)	4,767	9.2%
6/18/24 (VA-10)	2,576	5.0%

If Filler-Corn or Guzman joins the race, it could potentially spell trouble for Helmer, though he’d still have an advantage. In the 2024 US House primaries, Filler-Corn spent $1.2 million in her VA-10 campaign, placing fourth with 9% of the primary vote, while Helmer spent $2.0 million and placed second with 27%.

In the VA-7 Democratic primary, Guzman was hopelessly outspent by Eugene Vindman, who has access to the small-dollar donor-driven anti-Trump database compiled by consultants who profited from Democratic candidates in unwinnable races against Republican congressional incumbents that Democrats hate most (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mitch McConnell). In that campaign, Vindman spent a ridiculous $5.2 million and won with 49% of the primary vote, while Guzman spent a measly $318,000 and placed in distant second with 15%.

Filler-Corn would probably be the stronger of the two to face Helmer, given her ability to fundraise, as well as having previously represented 9.2% of likely primary voters in the House of Delegates. However, one can argue that a more progressive primary challenger, such as Guzman, would fare better with progressive voters in the Beltway portion of the district.

Regardless, Helmer is running in largely new territory for him, so the biggest advantage will be if he maintains a hand-over-fist spending edge across the district’s multiple media markets. Whether a competitive challenger emerges that’s able to give him a run for his money before the August primary, whether they’re named in this article or not, remains to be seen.