Once upon a time in western Henrico, things looked quite different.

Broad Street narrowed to two lanes after Springfield Road heading westward, the Pruetts hadn’t sold out to developers, and the area was filled with white, Republican voters and politicians that made this part of the commonwealth synonymous with “conservatism.” That reputation has since been reversed: Henrico has become the epicenter for Virginia Democrats’ gains over the last decade.

That change wouldn’t have been possible if it were not for the booming development of homes, apartments, and businesses over the last three decades, giving way to migration of ideologically liberal voters from outside of Virginia. When paired with Donald Trump’s electorally toxic reputation amongst college-educated voters, Henrico Republicans were seemingly nuked in an instant by 2017; their remaining losses over the last seven years (Dave Brat, Siobhan Dunnavant, and control of the Board of Supervisors) have been a consequence of the fallout.

Once home to dominant Republican politicians like Congressmen Eric Cantor and Dave Brat, State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, and Delegates John “Jack” Reid (father of the 2025 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, John Reid), John O’Bannon, Manoli Loupassi, Jimmie Massie, and more, this is now “Spanbergerland.” These are now liberal suburbs represented by Democrats on most levels of government. Aside from Congressman Rob Wittman, there remains one Republican left in western Henrico: Delegate David Owen. 

Owen represents House District 57, which from 2018 to 2023 consisted of three House of Delegates districts, two of which were competitive seats represented by then-Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg and Delegate Rodney Willett. The majority of the district today comes from a solidly Republican seat that was represented by then-Delegate John McGuire which encompassed the commercial hub of Short Pump and the entirety of conservative Goochland and Louisa counties.

District 57 is anchored around Short Pump, the economic driver of Henrico County, and includes parts of Henrico neighborhoods like Glen Allen and Wyndham. What put David Owen over the top though in his 2023 victory was one of the wealthiest parts of the Richmond area: Eastern Goochland County, a combination of exurbs and suburbs like Centerville, Huguenot Hills, and West Creek. Owen, a Goochland resident and homebuilder, owed high turnout amongst white conservatives to his 2-point victory in 2023.

That year, he beat Democrat Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner who was triaged by Virginia Democrats by mid-September after the Washington Post dropped a bombshell on the race. The district, prior to the story, had seemed like prime real estate for a Democratic victory: Gibson had been one of the top House Democratic fundraisers throughout the cycle, Schuyler VanValkenburg was consistently favored to beat Republican State Senator Siobhan Dunnvant, and the district had just narrowly voted for Democratic candidates for the US House in 2022. But due to the story, her resources were reallocated to other competitive races and she was left to her own devices, unable to overcome bad press that spread nationwide. The power of an old fashioned (albeit legal) sex scandal in the waning months of an election, however, reigned supreme, and David Owen won by the skin of his teeth.

House of Delegates election results in District 57

David Owen is running for re-election this year, and his challenger is in a much stronger position to win. Donald Trump is back in the White House, and his challenger, May Nivar, enjoys a slight financial advantage in campaign finance, outraising and outspending Owen in a district home to former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, this year’s Democratic nominee for Governor.

The Spanberger machine is hyper-focused on gaining ground in the Richmond suburbs as part of their statewide victory strategy. Her hometown affiliation makes it easy, they believe, for Democrats to gain ground this year. Should that ring true, it’s likely curtains for Owen, given the lack of ticket-splitting between gubernatorial and House of Delegates seats in recent elections. Our forecast shows that this is the best pickup opportunity for Democrats in the House of Delegates this year: David Owen is expected to lose by nearly 9 percentage points, and has just a 13% chance of victory.

Owen’s team has secured support from local businesses in and around Short Pump, putting 4×8 signs in strip malls and along Broad Street Road, flanked by the signs of the other candidates on the Republican statewide ticket. Nivar appears to be taking a more low-key approach to signage, as we saw few signs of hers on commercial properties and the ones we saw did not include other candidates for the Democratic statewide ticket. To the uninitiated, it may seem like an oversight to not outnumber or at least match the amount of signage that the incumbent has, and to only have signage for the House of Delegates candidate. But you and I both know that this is Henrico. Abigail Spanberger’s name isn’t plastered everywhere because it doesn’t need to be. Wherever Spanberger may be at a perceived deficit among Owen’s core bloc of business owners, there are voters elsewhere in the district who will turn out for her in equal or greater propensity. 

Another symptom of David Owen’s woes is the frustration amongst grassroots conservatives in the “MAGA” wing of the Virginia GOP. Before a get-out-the-vote effort, Owen reportedly kicked members of “Team Trump” out of his shared office space. Owen has been called everything but a child of Christ by Republicans to the right of him for his hesitation to support MAGA-affiliated Republicans.

It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out why Owen hasn’t campaigned as a hardline conservative: Kamala Harris won this district by 9.4% in 2024. Owen will need to appeal to independents and moderate Democrats in order to pull off a miracle this November, but he needs strong turnout amongst low-propensity, arch-conservative voters to win as well. Simply put, he needs to have a profile (and electoral environment) like Glenn Youngkin to stand a chance, and this year’s looking more similar to 2017 than 2021.

We planned to ask Owen and Nivar about top issues in the district (such as traffic and development), but unfortunately, neither campaign responded to a request for an interview.

As long as things remain on course for Democrats in the electoral environment and should May Nivar continue to run a strong campaign that remains scandal-free, this seat should be an easy pickup for Democrats. Spanberger will likely outrun Kamala Harris’s 2024 performance in the district, perhaps even doubling the failed presidential candidate’s margin in the 57th.

Unless Owen gets a lucky break like he did in 2023, May will likely be declared the winner of the 57th once the first few precincts start reporting their vote totals on Election Night.