“All politics is local.” – US House Speaker Tip O’Neill

In 2021, the wealthiest county in the United States, Loudoun County, was front-and-center during grassroots conservative fervor against local government. By late October, the county’s school system was embroiled in a major scandal after two sexual assaults were committed by the same student at two separate high schools in May and October. Outrage toward the county government was one of several factors which led to Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the gubernatorial election that year.

Now, downballot governance is once again affecting a race for the Virginia state government, this time in the House of Delegates. Purcellville politics have upended the race for House District 30, which our forecast indicates is the tightest race in the House of Delegates this year. In the district’s largest town by population, Purcellville, local politics throughout the year have become one of the leading issues in the district.

History rhymes: In 2023, data centers in Prince William County were the leading issue in the majority-making seat of House District 21, which Democrats ultimately won by 3.6% after running against the plan to build data centers in the rural swaths of the county.

Purcellville, a town of about 9,000 in western Loudoun County, was one of the few areas across Virginia which swung toward Democrats in 2024. In 2020, the two precincts which account for most of the town voted for Donald Trump in the Presidential election by 7 points, but in 2024 the town flipped on the presidential level to Kamala Harris, voting for her by 4 points– an 11 point swing.

District 30 is one of the few districts which voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, making Purcellville’s drift leftward even more of an oddity. The district contains small towns and rural areas in western Loudoun County and northern Fauquier County, and is one of the wealthiest in the commonwealth with a median income of $100,231. In 2023, former Loudoun County Board of Supervisors member and 2019 State Senate candidate Geary Higgins (R) won the open seat against Fauquier County pastor Rob Banse (D) by 6 points. Higgins is running for re-election this year against a young Fauquier County businessman, John Chilton McAuliff (D).

So how are Purcellville politics making a splash on the most competitive race in the House of Delegates?

In 2024, Purcellville held its mayoral election and an election for four of the six seats on the town council. There were two candidate ‘slates’ that candidates ran on: “Team Mayberry” (a reference to the name of the town from the classic Andy Griffith Show) and “Team Purcellville.” “Mayberry” was ultimately successful in electing its mayoral candidate, Chris Bertaut, a Republican according to his previous donations, and won two of the four seats up for the town council that year.

Local elections in Virginia are officially nonpartisan, and most of the town council members are seen as ideologically conservative, but there are still ideological factions in this level of government. Mayberry ‘flipped’ the local government last year: it was previously a 5-2 “Team Purcellville” majority and is now a 4-3 “Team Mayberry” majority. Mayberry called their opposition last year “Team Metropolis,” and campaigned on lowering water and utility rates as well as slowing development in the town. Bertaut appointed Carl “Ben” Nett, a 2019 candidate for Kentucky Secretary of State and former Secret Service agent elected to the town council on the Mayberry slate, to be the Vice Mayor of the town.

Tensions began to rise almost immediately after the new slate took office. In March, organizers started to gather recall petitions against the Mayor and Vice Mayor. The effort picked up steam after the town made headlines in April when the Mayberry government held a vote concerning Chapter 42 of the town’s code; the establishment of the Purcellville police force.

In a 4-2 vote, the council eliminated the section in the code which explains the role and responsibility of the force, thereby eliminating the department, to help ease the town’s debt crisis. The decision was met with shock and confusion from town residents, given the late hour of the decision’s passing and little opportunity for locals to protest the vote beforehand. Just days before, Vice Mayor Nett, who voted for defunding the department, was fired from the Purcellville police force.

Another April 8th vote by the council that flew well under the radar until far too late was the nomination of former mayor Kwasi Fraser to the mantle of town manager. Despite the council receiving over 80 applications for the position, none were reported to have been interviewed, and Fraser was given the title. While this vote was overshadowed by the attempt to disband the police force, it was met with considerable ire from local residents, as suggested by this video taken moments after the vote.

On April 22nd, the town ultimately decided to fund the town police department in a 5-1 vote with Mayor Bertaut abstaining. By the middle of May, the recall movement’s petitions had been certified by the Loudoun County Board of Elections, but the Loudoun Commonwealth’s Attorney, who was pursuing a case against Vice Mayor Nett, must review and determine whether there are valid grounds for holding a recall election. We do not yet know if there will be recalls on this November’s ballot, but the potential alone shows the local animosity toward the elected officials.

To make matters worse for the incumbent Purcellville government, the Vice Mayor and Town Manager were arrested on July 23rd, with both charged with six felony counts, including bid rigging and conspiracy. During the investigation, Mayor Bertraut wrote a letter to Attorney General Miyares to rally support for Nett. Embroiled in scandal, it’s needless to say that being an ally of the Mayberry government is politically toxic at the moment.

The two precincts in Purcellville made up 12% of the vote in House District 30 in 2023 and 11% of the vote in the district in the 2024 Presidential election, by far the most votes in any town in the district. In 2023, Higgins lost the town by just 6 votes, while in 2024 Kamala Harris won the town by 231 votes. For Democrat John McAuliff to win, he’ll need to expand upon Harris’s margin most likely, especially given Higgins’ strength in rural swaths of the Loudoun portion of District 30.

The ongoing outrage against the Mayberry government presents McAuliff with a unique opportunity as a Democrat. If he can present his candidacy as a bastion of government stability and accountability and circumvent any damaging opposition on the Republican side, he can use this momentum to his advantage. 

Since 2020, Republicans have constantly barraged Democrats on all levels of government with attack ads that claim that the Democratic candidate in question either supports defunding the police, or is funded by persons or groups that support defunding the police. Mayor Bertaut is an ally of Delegate Higgins, having donated $150 to his re-election campaign this year. Being aligned with an office holder on the receiving end of such a scandal, even financially, may end up working against Higgins.

Thus, if Democrats want to earn over the support of independent and conservative-tilting voters in a seat that flipped to Trump last year, they could hit Higgins’ Achilles heel: That he is supported by politician(s) that tried to defund, or rather *erase* the police. It is unknown whether Democrats plan to use this line of attack against Higgins, but it’s something to watch out for in the ad buys this Fall.

Delegate Higgins has been trying to use the 2021 Republican playbook, constantly showing up to Loudoun County School Board meetings and railing against their recent conduct. But his Twitter and Facebook pages have been mum concerning the months-long controversy in the heart of District 30. 

We reached out to both campaigns to ask them about the ongoing issues in District 30. Here’s our interview with the challenger, Democrat John McAuliff.

The Geary Higgins campaign did not respond to a request for an interview after we left a message for his office.

Higgins’ chances of victory relies on whether he continues to enjoy as much rural support as he did in 2023 and if residents in the district are frustrated enough with the county government to stick it to them and re-elect the Delegate. Privately, top Republicans are increasingly worried about Higgins’ re-election chances. For McAuliff to flip this seat, there’ll need to be a tall enough blue wave and enough anger toward the Mayberry Republicans for Purcellville to continue its drift leftward.

Will Democrats give Republicans a taste of their own medicine with ‘Defund the Police’ attacks? Are voters in western Loudoun just as frustrated with the county government as they were four years ago? Stick with us as we follow along this hyper-competitive seat in the Virginia House of Delegates.

This article was updated on August 11th with an interview with John McAuliff.