After a week and a half of weather delivered straight from the set of Fargo, both of Virginia’s chambers have been hard at work constructing maps for their mid-decade redistricting push. Each chamber had the chance to draw its own map, and some of the territories are shaping up to feature some (forgive me) Heated Rivalries of their own. Although this year’s maps promise a blowout Democrat midterm victory in what will be an inevitable blue wave, this advantage may wane further down the line.
INTERACTIVE MAP OF PROPOSED DISTRICTS
Background
Reports of spirited debate between proponents and opponents of the two proposed maps circulated in the news cycle over the last week. Democrats in both chambers went into deliberations apparently not disabused of their ten-expletive-one agenda, in spite of the unfavorable ruling passed down to them from the Tazewell courts last Wednesday. Since that ruling, the Virginia Supreme Court has taken up the case and will have the final say.
Here, we give you a look into the consequences of the agreed-upon maps, and where diverging interests may make for hardened feelings among the members of the General Assembly who had their federal ambitions sullied.
Last month, the House of Delegates commissioned maps from the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a 527 group chaired by former Attorney General Eric Holder. According to the organization’s website, the NDRC was founded in 2017 for the purpose of funding Democrats in statewide offices that have an agenda to redistrict their existing maps:
“Since our founding, we have executed a comprehensive redistricting strategy that includes shifting the balance of power away from total Republican control of redistricting, raising awareness of redistricting, and empowering the public to get involved in the fight for fair maps,”
“The NDRC and affiliates are fighting back and using every tool at our disposal: mobilizing people to take action, filing litigation, supporting Democratic candidates for office, and analyzing the new maps as they come.”
The site also makes reference to their own mapping capabilities:
“Technology and the use of AI are changing rapidly, and our investments in our technological mapping skills will ensure that our tools are cutting-edge.”
“The other chamber is the enemy.”
According to reporting from Punchbowl, Del. Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) is the heir apparent to the new map’s proposed 1st district. Helmer twice ran for Congress, once in 2018 and again in 2024 for Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. He spent the 2025 House of Delegates campaign season stumping for Democratic challengers and sitting behind countless folding tables at speaking engagements across Central Virginia. Helmer hopes that the third time could be the charm after his service as Speaker Scott’s Lieutenant.
While we do not know the authorship of the proposed Senate map, we do know from the same Punchbowl reporting that it planned to elevate current State Senators Russet Perry (D-Round Hill) and Lamont Bagby (D-Henrico) by giving them districts favorable to them, while creating a primary between former Rep. Tom Perriello of Charlottesville, and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.
Under the agreement, Senate Democrats spread themselves remarkably thin in their pursuit of dominance across ten districts—either map required some call-ups from the roster of General Assembly members. While Senate maps were designed to bolster Lamont Bagby or Russet Perry, the compromise would have them remain in the State Senate.
On February 3rd, after Brandon Jarvis also reported on the battle between the House and Senate, he tweeted that Governor Spanberger was trying to muster support for a 9 Democratic – 2 Republican map. Shortly after, President pro Tempore Lucas said only one proposal has the votes to pass the Senate, and that this is “not the time for games.”
Compromise Map Unveiled: District Breakdown
On Wednesday, February 4th, President pro Tempore Louise Lucas indicated that the House and Senate were in the process of “marriaging” the two proposals after Punchbowl reported on the friction between the chambers. On the morning of Thursday, February 5th, Speaker Scott and President pro Tempore Lucas said the maps would be released that day or Friday. All of Virginia’s Congressional Republicans, save for Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) in the Fighting Ninth, are on the chopping block.
Virginia (America’s) First Congressional District has shifted from Virginia’s Historic Triangle, Peninsulas, and western Richmond suburbs to the I-95 Corridor, stretching down to Hanover County. Eugene Vindman will win re-election in this seat.
Perhaps the most astonishing development is in Virginia’s Second Congressional District, where former Congresswoman Elaine Luria will continue to face incumbent Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) under very similar lines to the current second district, containing the Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach, southern Chesapeake City, Suffolk City, northern Franklin City, and eastern Southampton County. This district narrowly voted for Kamala Harris and Republican candidates for Congress in 2024.
In Virginia’s Third Congressional District, longtime Congressman Bobby Scott (D-Newport News) will continue to represent the inner cities of Hampton Roads and will coast to re-election this November.
In Virginia’s Fourth Congressional District, the incumbent Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond) will represent a seat similar to her current one, but it gains more of Southside Virginia, stretching to Danville.
Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District seems to be ideally drawn for Shannon Taylor. The new 5th contains western Henrico and Chesterfield and parts of Central and Southside Virginia, including all of Amelia, Nottoway, Lunenburg, Charlotte, Appomattox, Prince Edward, and Campbell counties. It also contains portions of Buckingham and Cumberland counties. Incumbent Republican John McGuire (R-Goochland) has been drawn out of his seat and is now paired with James Walkinshaw in the new 7th. The 6th is at least somewhat competitive, so, given the district’s makeup, McGuire will likely run here. In 2024, the district voted for Democratic candidates for Congress by 5.3%.
Virginia’s Sixth Congressional District unites the college towns of Virginia, as expected by Election Twitter aficionados who would post their maps to X. Blacksburg, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Roanoke, and rural areas in central and western Virginia are now joined to a seat that will feature a primary that Perriello likely wins against author Beth Macy and potentially Delegate Sam Rasoul. In all likelihood, he will face Congressman Ben Cline (R-Rockbridge) in the general election, even though Cline resides in the 9th. In 2024, this district voted for Republican candidates for Congress by 1% while voting for Kamala Harris by 3%.
Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District has shifted leftward under the new map, and it will change incumbents. Instead of being represented by Eugene Vindman, it will now likely be represented by freshman James Walkinshaw, who was elected in a special election last September. The new seventh voted for Democratic candidates for Congress by 5.4% and Kamala Harris by 8%. This district retains all of Culpeper, Orange, Greene, and Madison counties, and has gained all of Powhatan and Goochland counties, and parts of Rockbridge Augusta, Cumberland, Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church, and Fauquier. It still includes part of Prince William County but has shifted from the southern end to the central part of the county, which includes wealthy white precincts.
Virginia’s Eighth Congressional District will feature a contest between Congressman Rob Wittman (R-Westmoreland) and Congressman Don Beyer (D-Alexandria). This is essentially the new version of the old 1st district, containing the Northern Neck Peninsula, the Middle Peninsula, and the northern white suburbs along the nation’s first peninsula. The district now stretches up into Alexandria, Beyer’s home. This seat is reliably Democratic though, so Rob Wittman may flat out retire, or see if he can run elsewhere in the Commonwealth.
Virginia’s Tenth Congressional District is remarkably similar to the 10th district from the 2010s, encompassing all of Loudoun, Clarke, and Frederick counties, Winchester City, and parts of western Fairfax and northern Prince William counties. Congressman Suhas Subramanyam (D-Brambleton) will almost assuredly win re-election this November here in this safely Democratic seat.
Virginia’s Eleventh Congressional District still includes part of Fairfax County and now includes parts of Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William, Fauquier, and Rockingham counties, and the entirety of Page, Shenandoah, and Rappahannock counties. This district was clearly drawn for Delegate Dan Helmer, as no incumbent currently resides in this district, and most of Dan Helmer’s House of Delegates district has been placed here. In other words: The House won, the Senate lost.
So, is this really a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander?
No, this is not a “10-1” map as promised by Virginia Democrats. On the contrary, it’s an 8-3 map, and in Republican wave years could produce a 7-4 map. Senator Lucas alluded to this on February 4th when asked about the maps.
In all likelihood, this map will produce a 10-1 Democratic delegation in 2026, as it is highly likely a 2018-esque blue tsunami will crash upon the shores of the Commonwealth. The last time Virginia sent 10 Democrats to Congress was when Harry Byrd was Governor, 100 years ago. In an even environment, though, this map can easily “break” and give Republicans 3 seats in Congress. In a Republican-leaning environment that’s only slightly more favorable to Republicans than 2022, Democrats could win only 6 seats. If there is light at the end of the tunnel Republicans here in Virginia, it’s that Democrats could have easily drawn a stronger gerrymander, but due to a mixture of favoritism for Dan Helmer and incompetence by whoever drew the map, Democratic leaders in Virginia settled for something that doesn’t cement a 10-1 through 2030.
Next Step: The Campaign (?)
The Democrats’ redistricting effort has been widely criticized by Republicans as an unconstitutional power grab, noting that the vast majority of Virginians voted for independent redistricting in 2020. According to President pro Tempore Lucas, Governor Spanberger saw the map on Wednesday, and that there is no special consideration for incumbents or any candidate in particular: “If you get out and work, you can win it.” Anyone who looks at the maps, though, can clearly see that Delegate Dan Helmer was given a seat for his service to the Speaker.
Early polling from CNU suggests that a scant majority (51 to 47) of Virginians are in favor of a constitutional redistricting amendment. However, there is a notable split between the two questions on redistricting: a majority of respondents approved both the current nonpartisan mapmaking scheme and the redistricting amendment.
One thing to keep in mind is that polling from three months out, especially when the amendment hasn’t been decidedly upheld in a court of law, is hardly a conclusive metric by which to judge the eventual outcome of the amendment. The Virginia Supreme Court will have the final say, no matter what the maps would have you believe.
The redistricting amendment drew interest from both pro- and anti-redistricting lobby groups. The pro-amendment group, Virginians for Fair Elections, mobilized to approve the maps and fund pro-amendment media and ads. The anti-amendment group, Virginians for Fair Maps, says that the new maps unfairly gerrymander the state and pack Republican voters into otherwise much bluer districts.
Virginia has never held a statewide ballot question in April, further compounding off-season polling legitimacy issues. Virginia has not held a statewide election in April since 1953, when former Virginia Governor and Byrd Machine lieutenant William M. Tuck won VA-05 in a special election.
We’ll keep you apprised as this story unfolds, with our latest interactive map of the new districts as we add data along the way. Until then— stay warm, Virginia.
