We recently profiled HD-86 in Virginia’s tidewater region, discussing the likelihood of either Virgil Thornton, Sr. or incumbent A.C. Cordoza winning in the upcoming contest based on our qualitative and quantitative data modeling.

Today, we are here to inform you that the proverbial winds have shifted.

On the first day of early voting in the Commonwealth, an ad from Virgil Thornton’s campaign created quite the stir on social media after Virginia Scope journalist Brandon Jarvis posted a link to an unlisted YouTube video which was uploaded to Thornton’s YouTube channel on Wednesday. The ad alleges Delegate A.C. Cordoza has a track record of predatory and criminal behavior. Among the accusations, all of which the ad claims are in the public record, are that Cordoza pulled a firearm on a retired Virginia State Trooper, and a police report that “details sexual harassment of a teenager,” and after the teenager tried to flee, Cordoza “tried to stop her and touch her,” the ad alleges, and that he was running a sexting ring on social media, which encouraged predators to have sexual contact with teenagers. You can view the ad here. There is also a website dedicated to Cordoza’s track record, which includes the dates of the alleged offenses.

The ad will air through the weekend, we are told by Thornton, and it has been amplified by social media after just three hours into the first day of early voting.

We will continue to follow this race and make adjustments to the forecast as necessary, as a scandal like this can tip the scales considerably. This all comes after the latest campaign finance reports list Cordoza as falling behind Thornton’s fundraising efforts by nearly $150,000. Scandals and financial deficits such as Cordoza’s make it more and more difficult for a campaign to rebound the later they happen.

We reached out to Virgil Thornton and asked him about the targeted ad, and he gave the following statement– “Voters in the 86th District deserve to know the truth about who is representing them in Richmond. Public office is a position of trust, and anyone who endangers our families or abuses that trust has no business serving our communities. We deserve leaders who put integrity and safety first — and that’s exactly the kind of leadership I’ll bring.”

The Cordoza campaign refused to provide comment on this story.