In a working-class swing district in Hampton Roads, a challenger steps up to the plate.
A foster parent and leadership consultant from Hampton, Democrat Virgil Thornton Sr. has outraised two-term Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza by $8,000 in recent campaign finance reports; he has been tirelessly campaigning in the district which contains the southeastern end of York County, the entire city of Poquoson, and parts of his home of Hampton City.
Thornton takes his home very seriously. An unapologetic optimist, his platform puts strengthening public education and healthcare accessibility and affordability at the center at a time when everyday expenses are rising for Virginians. While he has both the aptitude and attitude that becomes necessary in a bid for public office, it’s his neighborly manner and track record of leadership that seems to appeal the most to residents.
Virginia Democrats are trying to correct the mistakes the national party made in last year’s election by emphasizing the cost of living, and seats like these are where it’ll go the furthest. District 86 is unlike other swing districts concentrated in historically Republican, wealthy suburbs of the commonwealth. It has a median income of $58,248/year, and a majority of residents don’t hold a college degree, including white residents, of whom only 37% have a college degree.
Thornton is challenging the incumbent, Republican A.C. Cordoza, in this year’s renewed Democratic bid to flip the district into their hands. Cordoza came to represent this district somewhat accidentally in 2021, when he flipped it from then-incumbent Democrat Martha Mugler in what was the biggest upset of the cycle in the Virginia House. That year, political insiders of both parties viewed Cordoza as a terribly weak candidate and Mugler as a strong incumbent heavily favored to win, yet Cordoza ended up riding Glenn Youngkin’s coattails to a narrow victory anyway. To say that Cordoza’s victory stunned the Commonwealth is an understatement. The flip gained interest from pollsters and psephologists nationwide and led to Virginia Democrats licking their wounds for the next 2 years.
Then came the salt in the wound. Cordoza won reelection in 2023 against Democratic challenger Jarris Taylor, who ran a shell of a campaign that year and was trounced as a result. Taylor raised a mere $61,294 through the cycle and lost by 13 points– turning Cordoza into one of the cycle’s top Republican electoral over-performers. This year featured the first election for HD 86 as we know it now; the maps were redrawn that year based on data from the 2020 census.
This time, the bowl hat-wearing Delegate Cordoza has stalled in this leg of the money race, despite generous contributions from Dominion Energy and Republican leaders in Virginia. Cordoza raised almost a quarter of a million dollars for his 2023 re-election campaign, according to the campaign finance reports filed for that cycle. His opponent ended the election cycle by having raised a touch over $80,000, a benchmark that Cordoza’s opponent for this year has already eclipsed in cash on hand. For the first time since 2021, Cordoza is playing catch up in the money game. In this last reporting cycle, Cordoza had an ending balance of $74,474 while Virgil Thornton Sr. had $82,720.
Upcoming findings from our Political Science Vice Chair Steve Rogers show that in Virginia House of Delegates elections, there has to be an enormous spending gap for an effect on the margins. Still, a comparison between 2023 and 2025 campaign finance reports in the 86th, particularly the spending habits of party leaders and their key allies, indicates that both parties believe the 86th will be a competitive district this year. Thornton has raised the stakes, quite literally, by outraising and outspending the incumbent.
If Thornton is able to continue outcompeting Cordoza in the final legs of the money race and make gains in competitive parts of the district, he can easily outperform Jarris Taylor’s abysmal performance in 2023 and maybe even flip the district for the first time since it has been redrawn.
Something working in Cordoza’s favor is Abigail Spanberger’s absolutely abysmal standing with Black voters. Privately, Virginia Democrats are saying that based on recent research, Spanberger will have an incredibly difficult time not only turning out Black voters, but that Winsome Sears, a fellow black Republican from Hampton Roads, may actually be winning over noteworthy support from this group. HD-86 is 23.4% Black, and if Sears is chipping away at Spanberger’s margin with Black voters, Cordoza will likely enjoy similar support, and could get pulled over the line.
We reached out to the Cordoza and Thornton campaigns for interview requests, but were unable to secure an interview due to scheduling conflicts.
Will Cordoza rally in the next filing period? Will Thornton continue to gain momentum, and therefore boost his earnings? And just how competitive will the 86th district be in this year’s elections? We’ll be sure to let you know, dear reader, when we have the answers.
