One of the most fascinating demographic swings in last year’s presidential election results was the youth vote. Ahead of the election, warning sirens went off about Democrats’ standing with young voters, which they won commandingly in 2020. AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster in the 2024 presidential election for Virginia, showed in its crosstabs that Kamala Harris led voters 18-29 by just three percentage points.
In Virginia this year, the youth vote will be imperative in determining the outcome of this year’s elections. Four districts are at least slightly competitive in the House of Delegates this year in the upcoming State Navigate forecast and contain large college student populations: House Districts 41 (Virginia Tech), 71 (William & Mary), 52 (Liberty), and 34 (Harrisonburg).
Typically, there’s not much difference between how House of Delegates districts vote for Governor and the simultaneous Delegate race, so if a gubernatorial candidate has a commanding victory within a Delegate district, candidates of the winning candidate’s party will often ride the gubernatorial candidate’s ‘coattails.’ So, with the youth vote front and center in this year’s elections in Virginia, what does the state of the gubernatorial election look like with this demographic?
NextGen America, a progressive nonprofit with a PAC that’s dedicated to helping Democrats with young voters, sponsored a poll conducted during the last week of May that surveyed 1,300 voters aged 18-29, with an oversample of 375 registered Virginia voters in that age demographic. The poll suggests Democrats are clawing back ground with young voters, who are unsatisfied with President Trump’s handling of the economy.
The Democratic nominee for Virginia Governor, Abigail Spanberger, leads Republican nominee Winsome Sears 54%-32% (a 22-point margin) with 9% undecided. In the generic ballot for the 2026 midterms, Democrats have a 31-point lead (62%-31% with 6% undecided), suggesting that there’s ground to gain for Spanberger amongst voters aged 18-29. “She has the most to gain with left-leaning voters, including liberal Democrats, white liberals, Democratic women, and Black voters. They are winnable, but only with the right approach,” the press release by NextGen America said.
“I think the polling is probably really accurate… I think candidates like [Lily Frankin] and I using social media, having these groups that are doing the work, I think are going to be a huge benefit to college town districts, and we can’t be sleeping on it at all” said Jessica Anderson, the Democratic nominee for HD-71, which NextGen plans on targeting again this year.
In speaking with State Navigate about the poll, NextGen representatives said while crosstabs won’t be public, the poll was weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, partisanship, and 2024 presidential recall vote. In the 2024 presidential recall, respondents broke down Harris +17: 49% Harris, 32% Trump, 6% third party/other, 12% did not vote, 1% don’t remember.
